TPGK makes me cry

thesharpie · #1 11-09-2005, 12:08 AM

I took a break from poker for a week or so and I feel like I'm making [censored] decisions now, I'm also becoming increasingly concerned that I fold too much postflop. Here's one that caused me to make some tilt plays later on in the session. Villain is basically unknown, but he's 45/5 over 18 hands and I haven't noticed him do anything.

Is the turn a check/raise? Once he raises the turn I feel he could easily be doing it with something like KK/QQ looking for a free showdown, then again he'd probably cap these preflop, or something like 99/JJ looking to push me off KK/QQ, then again he might not call these on the river. His flop raise also suggests to me he has a made hand, then again it could be something like TT or ATs or even AA.

I think I just talked myself into check/calling the river, but once I do bet should I be calling the raise? And is the turn optimal?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero crys and does something he regrets?

Edit: Also I probably shouldn't even be thinking my opponent might be making a free showdown play with QQ or might be looking to push me off a higher pocket pair with 99 at 2/4 right?

W. Deranged · #2 11-09-2005, 01:14 AM

I have a pretty tough time putting villain on any kind of hand range here. With his numbers I think he probably has something decent; usually a 45/5 would not raise here pre-flop on a power play and probably has a pretty good hand.

I kind of think we can probably find a good fold on the turn here. If he's straightforward his turn raise pretty easily suggests he has a better hand than you.

The problem with this hand is that it is so absurdly read dependent it's really hard to say what you should do. In concept, against the right player, I think your line is excellent. Just acknowledge that there are many players against whom you should be folding to the turn raise. Some you should be three-betting, and so on.

I do think I can say that against this player if you're betting the river after he's already raised you twice you should probably be folding to a raise. If you can't, then check and call. 45/5s don't make sophisticated free-showdown raises.

thesharpie · #3 11-09-2005, 02:26 AM

Right after I bet the river I knew I should bet only if I can fold to a raise, which I did, but I felt bad about it since he's almost unknown after 18 hands. Maybe I'm overestimating the times he bluff raises the river, or even value raises with something like AJ/AQ.

I don't think I could find a fold against him on the turn unless I had more hands on him, but I could be wrong as many of the hands I'm hoping he has need to be discounted, for instance he's probably not raising the flop with AJ or even AQ, and people at this level don't make free showdown plays much with a pocket pair here.

flopmonster · #4 11-09-2005, 02:53 AM

After being raised on the turn I would check/call the river. I think villain may think aj/aq may be good here and the bet/fold line i feel is a mistake

SNOWBALL138 · #5 11-09-2005, 03:54 AM

Check/calling rules.

The thing is that if villain is overplaying his hand, he will always bet the river, but because hero isn't 66 (1:2 shot) percent sure of having the best hand betting into a likely raise isn't fun.

Hero will never see a bluff here, but he will sometimes see a weak ace or KK. I doubt this is a free showdown raise. Hero might be against an overplayed KK who "knows" hero doesn't have an ace because hero bet the flop or maybe he just isn't paying attention to the board.

mtdoak · #6 11-09-2005, 09:50 AM

The larger the pot grows, the more you have to call this river. He could have a big ace of spades: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, which I would hate. A set? Maybe ATo? Maybe another AQ/AK? Was this a 6 max table or just a full table that was shorthanded? Getting 13-1, i kiss my chips goodbye and make a good note, no matter what he had.

ErrantNight · #7 11-09-2005, 11:33 AM

I dunno, hand range seems kinda easy...

We know:

(a) he doesn't raise much preflop, so his hand has got to be good to start

(b) he didn't cap preflop (AA, KK, QQ are out)

(c) he raised the flop he either has a pair (if he has a pair, he pretty much always has AT here, but JJ is a possibility, as is KT, QT), a flush draw (with either a T or the nut A), or AK here (a lot of people play AK exactly as they would play AA or KK) EDITED TO ADD: I suck at analysis sometimes. Because if he'd play AK like AA or KK and raise here, he'd cap preflop

(d) when he raises the turn he has a pair of aces a lot, sometimes a worse pair with a flush draw

EDITED TO ADD: sometimes he raises the turn with just a T, again.

Of course... this all might be reasonable with more hands against this opponent. As it is, this might be ridiculously weak/tight thinking, since conceivably he's LPA and he makes flop moves with less than a pair/nut-nopair (AQ, AJ).

Essentially, you're likely behind, but you don't know, and this doesn't seem like a terrible spot to find out if your villain is playing this fairly straightforwardly (i.e.: has what his play suggests), or is in the habit of raising as a semi-bluff, or a pure bluff, or over-betting his hands of marginal value. Or whatever.

So unless you're ready to put a solid read on him after 18 hands I think you want to show down (i.e.: call the turn, c/call river), understanding that you're likely making a slightly -ev play for some information.

But I wouldn't put in another bet if it didn't let me show down, and I'm definitely not putting two more in.

EDITED TO ADD: but my conclusion still stands.

#8 11-09-2005, 11:39 AM

I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand that beats you. Worst case scenario: He has TT, which is very possible, or he has AT, less likely. I like the idea of calling down here to be honest. I would check call the river and not bet out.

krimson · #9 11-09-2005, 11:55 AM

I like the flop and turn. I don't think you can c/r the turn, because you get 3-bet by AT, and you let a flush draw take a free card. A case of getting 1-2 bets in rather than 0-3.

I would c/c the river, if he raised us on the turn with whatever, i'm sure he'll bet the river as well. I don't really like b/f'ing this as his hand is really hard to read, and we don't know that much about our opponent. I think b/c just loses us an extra bet while behind AT or a flush.

droolie · #10 11-09-2005, 11:56 AM

Nice double donk dude!

Seriously though you can't bet that river if you can't fold to a raise, it's really that simple. I think taking a line that lets you fold this river is a money loser HU against an unknown in a pot this big. I think you should check call this river. I like the rest.

A turn C/R is fine because he will bet that turn no matter what he has be it draw or pp becuase you are HU and he can't show fear of the A. The problem is that you might get 3-bet with a hand you are way behind. I prefer donking the A and seeing how he reacts.

As it is I think he has y7ou beat when he raises the turn but the pot is big enought that I make sure I get this hand a SD.