Forge ahead? Retreat? Quit? Stats post.

[lastcoyote]

OK. So I quit my job and... just kidding! Here's the real story:

Background –

My wife and I own our own business selling electronics online (eBay, Yahoo and Amazon). We’ve been at it for 4+ years. The market we are in is getting more and more crowded/competitive. We have only had 2 mini-vacations since we started. We’re barely keeping it profitable (after we pay ourselves). We are burnt out and tired of it.

I started playing HE online last summer. Lost my initial $50 deposit. Convinced my wife to let me deposit $450 more. I turned it into $6000 through winnings and bonus whoring by the end of the year. I had cashed out about $2000 to pay for some home projects which pleased the wife. I decided to make a proposal.

The Proposal –

By year’s end I had moved up to playing 5/10 6-max with some success. I came to my wife with the idea that poker could be a part time job for me. I would work at our business in the mornings and play poker afternoon, evenings and weekends to get 20-25 hours per week, 2-tabling. My goal was to play 50,000 hands (2 months)at 5/10 6-max to see if I could beat the game for at least 1 BB/100.

She agreed to let me give it a try with the hopes that we could use poker earnings to pay our living expenses and business profits to pay down business debt. The plan was (is) that if I succeed at poker I will have more options regarding our business (maintain, grow or close it).

The Sob Story –

The first two weeks went fine. I was up 190 BB (2.7 BB/100 over 7K hands) in the 5/10 6-max game. Of course I got cocky, followed some “buddies” to 10/20 and dropped a couple dozen BB there. I retreated and vowed not to move up until I am adequately prepared. Sounds promising right? Now get out your hankies.

Since Jan. 13 I am down 330 BB. I know this is to be expected every once in a while. I haven’t lost my roll. I’ve got about 200 BB left for this level (I cashed $1500 out a couple of weeks ago to pay for living expenses). Having this big downswing so early into my “career” has me questioning whether I am even a winning player.

The Questions –

My questions to the 2+2 HUSH forum are these:

What would you do with your roll if you were me? Should I fight through this downswing at 5/10? Should I move down to 3/6 full on Party? Should I move to 3/6 short on another site? Move lower? One consideration is that I really don’t want to deposit into my poker “account” again.

Also, my stats are posted below. I chose to post the stats from the beginning of the slide. All feedback and comments are appreciated.

[Joe826]

My 5/10 6-tops story closely resembles your, except my downswing stopped at around 280 BBs. The most important thing for now is that you need to drop down to 3/6 if you only have 2k. That's not nearly enough to play these games, and it's barely enough for 3/6. I don't really know how to analyze stats so i'll let the other guys do it, but your VP$IP and your PFR look fine. Post some hands about situations you are unsure of and just hang in there. I think alot of my downswing was due to bad play, as i'm alot better today then I was back in August. It just seems to take time to properly adjust.

[7ontheline]

I agree, move down. Even if you are indeed a winning player at 5/10, you no longer have the roll to continue at that level. Grind it back up. Keep whoring - in your situation, it looks like you want every dollar you can get.

As for your stats. . .there are many more experienced posters than me here but your PFR looks a little low. The figure I hear quoted is 15-16%. Your steal blinds % also seems low. Usually 30-35% is more desirable - perhaps raising to steal blinds would increase your PFR percentage. By position, you're losing money only in the blinds - I don't think your blind defense numbers are totally unreasonable. . .maybe a little loose but not too bad. Perhaps you're staying in too long with your blind hands? Of course, you're non-blind positions are not profitable enough. . .not sure about that. Last thing I noticed was your flop aggression - personally I think it should be higher, but that may be my bias. You also checkraise a decent amount - are you overly tricky? Your stats overall don't look horrible to me - your lower W$WSF implies you may have been running bad.

[pfkaok]

Steal blinds a little more...

bet more on flop. 23.9% seems a little low. maybe you're trying to CR too much, i dunno.

you might be folding to river bets too much. 44.5% is very high i believe.

I'd either switch sites or play some 1/2 at party for a while to build up your BR and confidence... maybe do a little bonus whoring at party skins playin 1/2, and look for rakeback if you do'nt have one... that always helps me get thru the tough swings feeling better [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[helpmeout]

You have to have realistic goals.

Playing poker part-time 25 hours a week, 2 tabling and 50k hands in 2 months just doesnt add up.

A big part of poker is studying not just playing. Its not a job, you cant just turn up and make so much a month.

You have to keep studying and developing your game it is really draining.

I think you are really going to struggle with the emotional and mental strain of running your own business as well as playing poker.

First 200BB is not enough for 5/10, dont even think about staying.

Personally if I were you I'd focus on $2/$4 ring, it is very weak and you can still pump out a decent amount of cash if you are good enough. The swings are no way near as brutal as $5/10 (I dont think $3/$6 is much more profitable than $2/$4)

If you and your wife are sick of your business then you might have to get "proper jobs".

Poker is good on the side and a good long term goal if you are dedicated enough.

[spydog]

You must move down. I would try 3-tabling 1/2 6-max and 4 tabling 2/4 full. You have the bankroll to comfortably play these levels, and with multitabling you should be able to earn a reasonable amount while bettering your skills. If you are relying on poker to supplement your income, I would maintain a bankroll of 1000BB at whatever level you play.

[Mr. Graff]

Quality post as usual. I agree 2/4 is the best path to take because 1) it is less swingy and 2) you have the proper roll for it meaning you can play within your comfort zone and you need the "breather". Confidence is important so do what it takes to regain it by playing at a level that is very beatable and then move up when you are ready again.
Mental health and stability is more important than any profit you may be giving up by doing this IMO.

Your stats seem pretty OK to me, looks like you are running bad. I think your river aggression may be too high though, I suspect you fold quite a few winners.

[lastcoyote]

Thanks to you all for taking the time to reply. Your message has been heard.

I will be moving down in limits. There's no other path. Although I do have a great new rate on a new credit card I just got! I kid.

Before I posted my plan was to drop back to 3/6 full. I think I will go all the way down to 2/4 full. It feels like a huge set-back but I guess I just need to swallow my pride and do that. I have no problem 4-tabling full ring so I may try to play 6 tables to see if I can handle it. Maybe mix in some 1/2 6-max tables.

My ultimate goal is to be on of those 6-tabling, 15/30 MONSTERS making 150K a year (someday). [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't think my wife an I can even stomach going back to the regular workforce at this point. Alot of people talk about using poker as a means to freedom from the daily grind. Maybe using it as an opportunity to make some dough which could lead them to eventually starting thier own business. I guess I just have that backwards but I really want to stay on this side of that fence.

I think there were some good insights into my stats:

- I'm sure I must be running bad but that is only part of it. I have not developed all of the skills needed for this game.

- I am folding too many winners.

- I need to come out firing on the flop more.

- I probably try to play tricky sometimes where it's not warranted.

- I need to steal a little more.

- I probably play my marginal blind hands too far.

I'm sure there's more. Anyway, I hope to see you all at the 5/10 tables someday soon. Good luck and thanks!

[7ontheline]

Good luck, keep us posted. Keep working at it - remember that it only takes a couple of mistakes every hour to wipe out any BB/100 you were winning - small mistakes will lead to long-term losses. When you've tightened up your game, take another shot.

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
it only takes a couple of mistakes every hour to wipe out any BB/100 you were winning

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a bit harsh. In reality some "mistakes" work out and your opponents make lots of mistakes too, so it is more than a couple of mistakes an hour, more like a couple more mistakes than your opponents...but yes, try to keep the mistakes small ones... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]