20+2 bubble - easy question i think

[Isura]

Table is pretty tight and typical. What range of hands do I need here to push, knowing villain will be getting 5:1 on a call? My guess is AA-QQ?

***** Hand History for Game 2333456406 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13771787 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Saturday, July 09, 00:35:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 14920 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: tigerfrenzy ( $2295 )
Seat 4: Spyder444 ( $1175 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $1040 )
Seat 9: Trofim ( $3490 )
Trny:13771787 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [x x]
Trofim raises [600].
Hero is next to act.

[45suited]

With the blinds coming up on me and ravaging my stack the next two hands, I'd push AA-TT here. JJ and TT would be too good for me to pass up vs. the big stack's mini-raising range. I think you have to gamble a bit here. I might even be tempted to push lower PPs and hope he's got overcards, simply because once the blinds pass you, you've got zero FE and you're the shortstack.

By "lower PPs", I mean depending on my read of bigstack, I might push down to 55-66 and hope for a race. Can't get too choosey here.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
By "lower PPs", I mean depending on my read of bigstack, I might push down to 55-66 and hope for a race. Can't get too choosey here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want a race when there's another stack about the same size? Isn't it better to try to steal instead of taking a coinflip here.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want a race when there's another stack about the same size? Isn't it better to try to steal instead of taking a coinflip here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The key here is that you're going to be taking the blinds and you won't have any FE with which to steal. As Microbet said, if you were third and the fourth stack was very short, you could afford to fold. Not here. My ballpark range is close to Microbet's: I originally said PPs down to 55-66, but I forgot to add AK and AQ. You're in a tough spot and have to gamble.

I like you're two posts today... very thought provoking. These are the kind of spots that I really have to think a bit on when I'm at the table.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want a race when there's another stack about the same size? Isn't it better to try to steal instead of taking a coinflip here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The key here is that you're going to be taking the blinds and you won't have any FE with which to steal. As Microbet said, if you were third and the fourth stack was very short, you could afford to fold. Not here. My ballpark range is close to Microbet's: I originally said PPs down to 55-66, but I forgot to add AK and AQ. You're in a tough spot and have to gamble.

I like you're two posts today... very thought provoking. These are the kind of spots that I really have to think a bit on when I'm at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the responses so far. I really need to loosen up a bit on the bubble on these spots. I'm working on that, and actually pushed with ATs, which is probably slightly -EV.

[steaknshake925]

i will try: AA-22, AK-A7, KQ, KJ

[microbet]

If you were third stack and fourth stack was a real shorty, you would need a monster, but as it is, I think you just need a solid hand.

Something like 77+, AJs, AQ

[Nottom]

I'd guess somewhere around 88+, AQ+.

TT+/AK is definately a call. Loosening from there is somewhat dependant on what UTG is raising here; he should be raising a lot as the big stack, but obviously not everyone plays like they should.