Going overboard with implied odds?

[ajmargarine]

Villian is at a bit below average. He has $90 and I cover.

0.50/$1 NLHE 7-handed

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Villian checks.

Flop: ($4) T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (4 players)</font>
Check, check, check, check.

Turn: ($4) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (4 players)</font>
Villian bets $7.50, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $7.50...

[DoomSlice]

Probably not, you'll only need to get about a pot-sized bet + 1/2 on the river to make this profitable, which is reasonable if he has the A-high flush.

However, most of the time he WON'T have the A-high flush, which is why I'd actually recommend raising the turn.

[Morrek]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably not, you'll only need to get about a pot-sized bet + 1/2 on the river to make this profitable, which is reasonable if he has the A-high flush.

However, most of the time he WON'T have the A-high flush, which is why I'd actually recommend raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The downside to raising would be that he might reraise with the A(not giving you odds), and otherwise (with lower flushes) probably not put any more in if you improve on the river. I'm not sure what I'd do here, probably call and pray

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]

The downside to raising would be that he might reraise with the A(not giving you odds)....

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus, I have CO left to act behind me, and he might raise my raise with the Ace and then all my odds would be gone.

[DoomSlice]

CO's probably raising the A anyway.

[soah]

Have you guys lost your minds? You need to extract a ton on the river just to BREAK EVEN. This talk of raising the turn is sheer lunacy. Getting tons of money in the pot on the turn with a draw is chip spewing in the extreme. Barring some insane read that my hand may actually be good on the turn, it's an easy fold.

[DoomSlice]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($4) 5 (4 players)
Villian bets $7.50,

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This looks a helluva lot more like a "I don't want you in my pot anymore" bet than a "pay me off" bet

2) You're about 4:1 to boat up being given about 1.5:1 immediate odds, if you collect even 1.5xPot on the river (like i said originally) you show a profit. This is definately not unreasonable to assume if he holds an A.

However, he appears more scared than confident, so I am guessing the FE is pretty darn high.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you guys lost your minds? You need to extract a ton on the river just to BREAK EVEN. This talk of raising the turn is sheer lunacy.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the turn, I agree, is insane.

River extraction is the point of the post. Can I make enough if I hit my hand to make the turn call worthwhile? The times he has the ace, I think I will. The times he has the K/Q/J, it's probably not going to happen. I don't consider getting $15.50 more out of villian on the river to be a TON. That's just a PSB.

[soah]

If he doesn't have the ace, will he check/fold the river? (And would he ever check the ace on the river to screw you up?)

One of the great arts of no limit poker is the ability to call a bet with a draw with the intention of stacking the guy when he's strong and you hit, and to steal the pot when he's weak and you miss. But of course, it requires the right type of opponent...

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks a helluva lot more like a "I don't want you in my pot anymore" bet than a "pay me off" bet

[/ QUOTE ]

His overbet would be an interesting play with like the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Pushing out the K and Q with his obvious Ace. He's not smart enough for that. (And that play had never occurred to me until now, so I guess I'm not that smart either lol). He is leading into 3 people. I'm probably 70% sure he has the ace.