Can I get away from this?

[bobbyi]

This weekend, I played a $10/20 session at Muckleshoot. For those of you who don't know, this is an Indian casino in Auburn, Washington.

A consistent theme throughout the session was that I had good hands that I knew (or strongly suspected) were beaten, but could not get away from due to the pot size and strength of my hand. I am going to post one hand here and hope that you will tell me if there is anything that could have been done differently:

Preflop: Two early and two mid players limp. I raise on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The blinds drop, the first early player calls and the second reraises. The next two players call and I cap (?). Five to the flop for four bets. I should note that I'm not quite sure what the limp-raise means. I've seen it in this game both with very strong hands and with goofy [censored] with which a player wants to "gamble". On the other hand, this player doesn't seem like a goofy guy.

Flop: AQ8r, with one diamond. It's checked to me (suspicious), and I bet. A call and then limp-raiser (LR) raises (I'm not surprised). All call. Still five players.

Turn: Offsuit 9. The first two players now check (?), and the third bets. All call except for the first second mid-position player.

River: King, no flush possible. Same player bets and I call. LR calls.

Results (might as well post them now):
Bettor has JT for the nuts. LR doesn't show but tells the player next to him he flopped a set (I believe him).

[DanZ]

this is a good spot to check on the flop.

When you are check-raised, you have to be beat with this board. So when the bet comes from a 3rd party on the turn amd you didn't help, you can ditch the hand there. you can certainly ditch it on the river, since an AKQ board implies you have 2 pair or a set.

Now, if there's any chance the players involved aren't playing this hand ABC, you have to stay in this enormous pot.

Dan Z.

[Franchise (TTT)]

I like betting the flop, in that if you get check-raised it will knock people in between out and make the rest of the hand easier to play. If you check behind, you could be setting yourself up to face 2-cold from a hand you beat on the turn.

[bobbyi]

Everything you say is fairly reasonable, but I find it hard to check this flop. So far, the only aggression I've seen from any of my opponents is the preflop limp-raise. I don't think this is enough information to conclude that I can't possibly have the best hand. If I do have the best hand, the pot is large and at least one and maybe all of my opponents have flopped a pair. Giving them a free card to make two pair/ trips seems very dangerous. I bet because of how strongly my hand needs protection if it's good. Do other people also think I should check here?

[Jamie Collins]

Dan,

I disagree that bobby should fold the river once he/she calls the turn. If my math is right the river call is profitable if AK wins here ~ 4%. I'm hardly ever that certain of my opponents play. Bobby has a clear call IMO. I would estimate in most games AK is good 5-15% of the time here, much higher in some games.

The player who claimed he had a set certainly didn't play it that way on the turn and river.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, if there's any chance the players involved aren't playing this hand ABC, you have to stay in this enormous pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an enormous pot so a player may NOT play it ABC.

Regards,

Jamie

[DanZ]

"If I get check-raised I might clear out hads with outs"

If you get check-raised you are losing 99% of the time. Also, you won't fold 5 outers for a lousy big bet here...

"If you check you set up facing 2 cold on the turn from hands you beat"

Isn't this precisely what you want in a giant pot with a vulnerable hand?


Dan Z.

[Depraved]

If you believe the LR had a set, you'll believe anything, or he's a complete idiot. Why in the world would he check/call the turn after checkraising the flop if he indeed flopped a set???

With 10 BB to begin with in the pot and TPTK becoming top two, you would be foolish to fold at any point in the hand you just posted. You way you played it was fine, and if anything I might have raised the turn, but never would I fold to one bet.

[Depraved]

I think this is pretty bad advice. With TPTK in a 10 BB pot, you have to give yourself the best chance to win it, not worry about saving a big bet on the flop or worry if you're beat.

And you can definitely get checkraised with plenty of hands which you can beat or tie just like you can limp reraise with plenty of hands that aren't AA or KK.

Ditching top two on the river for one bet is also ridiculous since the player betting could also have two pair, or could be hoping you just fold.

[DanZ]

This is why I saw "if they are capable of not playing ABC here". If they are playing ABC, and they are smart enough to find the card room, you can't win. You can be 100% sure you are beat, or, at least 99% (90% x 2 players). So you have no call.

If they are capable of mixing it up IN THIS SPOT, or are too duumb to realize that you have 2 cards Q or higher, then you should probably call. There are lots of players who are not capable of this, but lots who are. Let's recall it's a 10-20 game where players aren't adjusting too well to the pot size and are going to probably fear a preflop 4 bettor a great deal.

Dan Z.