Top two got c/r'd twice on the turn.

gh9801 · #1 09-18-2005, 07:45 PM

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB 3-bets

Hero...?

SB is 55/0/0.2 over 22 hands
BB is 15/7/3 over 400 hands

Bodhi · #2 09-18-2005, 07:55 PM

It looks like you'll have to boat up here to win. Either the SB or BB has AJ/J9, or one of them is overplaying a smaller 2 pair. Anyway, unless you have a miracle read this would be a tough laydown, but if you're 95% sure you're behind to AJ or J9 then you have to fold because you're just not getting odds...

W. Deranged · #3 09-18-2005, 07:55 PM

I almost puked reading this so I can't imagine what happened to you when you played it...

The taggish check-three bettor very likely has a big, big hand here. AJ and J9 are certainly very real possibilities, as is 44 and to a lesser degree TT. (Plus possibly QT, though I doubt this player would play it so strong). Also, the loose fish has very low aggression and likely has a hand as well. You're going to need to put in a minimum of three bets more in order to see a showdown here. If it gets capped behind you you are almost certainly beat here.

I think we basically have three options here:

1. Cap that [censored] and probably check behind on the river.

2. Call the two, with the intent of calling a cap because we have to because we have odds to draw to the boat at that point.

3. Fold.

We likely have 4 clean outs, which is worth something like 1.1 BB here. I don't know if we're going to be ahead the ~10% or so of the time we don't improve necessary to call down. I think capping the turn is probably better than calling because it will be capped sometimes anyway and capping may let us get away with showing down for free. I honestly can't think that folding is ever that bad here. One problem with capping is that we'll sometimes get bet into anyway by someone with the nuts, and I really don't like putting in four more bets here and I also really don't like folding to a single bet on the river in a pot this big.

gh9801 · #4 09-18-2005, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like you'll have to boat up here to win. Either the SB or BB has AJ/J9, or one of them is overplaying a smaller 2 pair. Anyway, unless you have a miracle read this would be a tough laydown, but if you're 95% sure you're behind to AJ or J9 then you have to fold because you're just not getting odds...

[/ QUOTE ]

I have their PT numbers, other than that no reads. I'm not sure how "sure" I can get, but I'm guessing I have to pay a shitload to see a showdown and I most liekly only have 4 outs.

I'm guessing a fold is best, but I'm still unsure

gh9801 · #5 09-18-2005, 08:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I almost puked reading this so I can't imagine what happened to you when you played it...

The taggish check-three bettor very likely has a big, big hand here. AJ and J9 are certainly very real possibilities, as is 44 and to a lesser degree TT. (Plus possibly QT, though I doubt this player would play it so strong). Also, the loose fish has very low aggression and likely has a hand as well. You're going to need to put in a minimum of three bets more in order to see a showdown here. If it gets capped behind you you are almost certainly beat here.

I think we basically have three options here:

1. Cap that [censored] and probably check behind on the river.

2. Call the two, with the intent of calling a cap because we have to because we have odds to draw to the boat at that point.

3. Fold.

We likely have 4 clean outs, which is worth something like 1.1 BB here. I don't know if we're going to be ahead the ~10% or so of the time we don't improve necessary to call down. I think capping the turn is probably better than calling because it will be capped sometimes anyway and capping may let us get away with showing down for free. I honestly can't think that folding is ever that bad here. One problem with capping is that we'll sometimes get bet into anyway by someone with the nuts, and I really don't like putting in four more bets here and I also really don't like folding to a single bet on the river in a pot this big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, so what would be your final verdict?

W. Deranged · #6 09-18-2005, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I almost puked reading this so I can't imagine what happened to you when you played it...

The taggish check-three bettor very likely has a big, big hand here. AJ and J9 are certainly very real possibilities, as is 44 and to a lesser degree TT. (Plus possibly QT, though I doubt this player would play it so strong). Also, the loose fish has very low aggression and likely has a hand as well. You're going to need to put in a minimum of three bets more in order to see a showdown here. If it gets capped behind you you are almost certainly beat here.

I think we basically have three options here:

1. Cap that [censored] and probably check behind on the river.

2. Call the two, with the intent of calling a cap because we have to because we have odds to draw to the boat at that point.

3. Fold.

We likely have 4 clean outs, which is worth something like 1.1 BB here. I don't know if we're going to be ahead the ~10% or so of the time we don't improve necessary to call down. I think capping the turn is probably better than calling because it will be capped sometimes anyway and capping may let us get away with showing down for free. I honestly can't think that folding is ever that bad here. One problem with capping is that we'll sometimes get bet into anyway by someone with the nuts, and I really don't like putting in four more bets here and I also really don't like folding to a single bet on the river in a pot this big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, so what would be your final verdict?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I thought I could get away with giving analysis and equivocating about the final answer...

Ummm... I think the correct answer is "fold."

gh9801 · #7 09-18-2005, 08:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I almost puked reading this so I can't imagine what happened to you when you played it...

The taggish check-three bettor very likely has a big, big hand here. AJ and J9 are certainly very real possibilities, as is 44 and to a lesser degree TT. (Plus possibly QT, though I doubt this player would play it so strong). Also, the loose fish has very low aggression and likely has a hand as well. You're going to need to put in a minimum of three bets more in order to see a showdown here. If it gets capped behind you you are almost certainly beat here.

I think we basically have three options here:

1. Cap that [censored] and probably check behind on the river.

2. Call the two, with the intent of calling a cap because we have to because we have odds to draw to the boat at that point.

3. Fold.

We likely have 4 clean outs, which is worth something like 1.1 BB here. I don't know if we're going to be ahead the ~10% or so of the time we don't improve necessary to call down. I think capping the turn is probably better than calling because it will be capped sometimes anyway and capping may let us get away with showing down for free. I honestly can't think that folding is ever that bad here. One problem with capping is that we'll sometimes get bet into anyway by someone with the nuts, and I really don't like putting in four more bets here and I also really don't like folding to a single bet on the river in a pot this big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, so what would be your final verdict?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I thought I could get away with giving analysis and equivocating about the final answer...

Ummm... I think the correct answer is "fold."

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, thanks for the analysis. I folded too, but I would like to hear what other people think