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#1
07-18-2005, 07:21 PM
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Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
Party 15-30, really nice game. Loose, Passive averaging 4-5 to the flop unraised, 3-4 raised. Real action game.
UTG +1 limps and is loose passive Preflop, a bit passive postflop but will raise some strong draws. Everyone folds to the CO. CO raises and is tighter, more aggressive, can get out of line once in a while, but seems about average for this game, not too good, not bad either. A bit loose PF but pretty standard post. I'm on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and three bet. Blinds fold, and now UTG +1 limp caps. (Not good news) CO cold calls 2 back to him, I obviously call the $15 getting 11:1 and pray for a miracle. Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Not the worst of flops at least I have a draw) UTG+1 bets, CO calls, I call and pray for a Jack or a heart. Turn is my gin card J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG+1 bets, CO calls, I raise, UTG+1 calls, CO folds. River Brick UTG+1 bets. Your action? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 
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#4
07-18-2005, 07:35 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
[ QUOTE ]
Sounds like 14:1 I think you have to call and hope he wasn't playing KT or JT. [/ QUOTE ] Those were 2 hands I did not put him on. Now way , no how. Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. 2 of which have me stomped, and three of which I have in a tough spot. AA and KK are much more likely hands though than the other 2.
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#5
07-18-2005, 07:37 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to call and hope he wasn't playing KT or JT. [/ QUOTE ] If he held KT or JT he would have repopped the turn, no? It seems more likely that he has a T with an unpaired kicker (probably a low one) which is why he slowed down when he got raised on the turn. Either that or AK, KQs. Either way, I don't see a full house pulling a stop and go here. Someone PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong, as this will probably expose a big hole in my game.
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#6
07-18-2005, 07:44 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
Easy to not three bet on turn for UTG with a boat. He can win 3 more big bets with a call from the third guy and if they both call on the river vs. two if he folds him out (not to mention a 3 bet could fold both players behind).
That said, I would lean toward a three bet in this situation since there are a lot of draws that donk might call with. But I am not UTG, he certainly could have a boat. As far as the hand I think it is pretty close. I actually lean toward a call on the river becasue the player is not great. I could see a tricky players trying to make sure he got value out of his AA, but this same players should fold to a river raise anyway. I think calling is best, but I wouldn't argue too much with a raise.
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#7
07-18-2005, 07:46 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
[ QUOTE ]
Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. [/ QUOTE ] Why couldn't he have ATs? I guess QTs and JTs are less likely, but they would fit the action so far. You did say that UTG was a loose passive, right?
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#9
07-18-2005, 07:48 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
KT and KJ are ridiculous possibilities. Passive opponents don't limp reraise, let alone limp-cap, with those hands.
AA and KK are by far the most likely holdings, with AA being the most likely, IMO. The preflop action in and of itself is enough to tell us that. You would expect him to reraise the turn w/ KK, but perhaps he just called hoping to not scare off the CO. Given that, and the fact that the K on board leaves more possibilities of AA than KK, I think AA is more likely. JJ is a slim possibility, but again, passive players don't play JJ like this. So I vote for raising the river and calling a 3 bet. Is he THAT passive that he would not lead into you again on the river with AA after you raised him on the turn?
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#10
07-18-2005, 07:50 PM
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Re: Walking into a bear trap, can I get away?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Though the possibilites were narrowed down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. [/ QUOTE ] Why couldn't he have ATs? I guess QTs and JTs are less likely, but they would fit the action so far. You did say that UTG was a loose passive, right? [/ QUOTE ] Passive = not limp-capping any of those hands.
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