Is it possible to have 25 in a row out of the money due to just var?

[Karak567]

I am twenty-five in a row out of the money... not a buy-in drop... out of the money.

My buy-in drop is reaching 30+ now.

Is 25 OOTM a variance possible thing or did something in my game go ENTIRELY wrong in the last two days?

[DasLeben]

I think raptor posted a 22 straight OOTM pretty recently.

25 though? I don't mean to make you feel bad, but that's the worst I've seen. However, this can be related to variance I think. It'd just be very very rare.

[Karak567]

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I think raptor posted a 22 straight OOTM pretty recently.

25 though? I don't mean to make you feel bad, but that's the worst I've seen. However, this can be related to variance I think. It'd just be very very rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's bad.

I was a solid 20 % ROI player at the 33s over a large sample size.

I didn't change anything in my game.

I don't know what went wrong.

It HAS to be variance. I've been posting a lot of my bust out hands and with a few exceptions, most people are saying A-OK - but I can't help but question my game?

I really hope this is just variance or something is very wrong.

[Karak567]

Is anyone willing to review some of my hand histories for me?

I would appreciate it. Just let me know here or e-mail me at erb4321@comcast.net.

Thanks.

I am in crisis mode!

[deathpotato]

It is possible. It's possible to go whatever number you want to pick in a row OOTM, it's just astronomically unlikely. If you want to define some figure, like once every 100,000 SNGs, as so very unlikely that it is much more likely the cause is something other than variance, fair enough. As it stands, assuming a 40% ITM you should have a run like this once in every 1/0.6^25 SNGs, or once every 351,737. It's probably not variance.

[Myst]

Well, to give you an idea, a 37% ITM player will have a 25 OOTM, .63^25, or 9.62^-4% of the time.

Its highly improbable. You probably have some leaks in your game. The difference between raptors and yours is that he KNOWS hes a winning player over his Long sample size. You do not.

[Myst]

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I am in crisis mode!

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are in crisis mode, you should stop playing until you are emotionally stable enough to play again. You might be tilting.

[Karak567]

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Its highly improbable. You probably have some leaks in your game. The difference between raptors and yours is that he KNOWS hes a winning player over his Long sample size. You do not.

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I have a couple thousand SNGs at a positive ROI that say I am...

Maybe what happened is when I hit 15-16 OOTM I started tightening up on the bubble which extended my OOTM streak to more than it should have been.

I'll just have to get some sleep tonight and start over tomorrow. I am confident enough that I am doing well. I posted a LOT of my bustout hands (over half of them) and got the "ok" from most people here.

[Sykes]

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Its highly improbable. You probably have some leaks in your game. The difference between raptors and yours is that he KNOWS hes a winning player over his Long sample size. You do not.

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I have a couple thousand SNGs at a positive ROI that say I am....

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A couple thousand is really nothing. This is like saying a person has 25,000 hands saying he's a winning player at 5/10 SH but is now at a -300/-400 BB downswing.

A statisical hiccup, if you are playing perfectly that is, which I doubt you are because that's nearly impossible.

[pearljam]

Seems like a classic combination of horrible luck and tilt induced timidness to me.