#1
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River raise comes out of nowhere
Villain in this hand is 77/15 31%/46% wtsd/wonsd with a 2.71 aggro factor after 246 hands. I followed him to my current table after I saw him donk of 2.5 buyins at another table. When I first got to this table he was at 17. After doubling twice he as slowly work4ed his way up to 100. His loose donkish play has kinda dissapeared, I think he was on tilt at the other table. He has generally been respecting my play and staying out of pots with me. He is by no means good, he is still a donk, but I think he knows I am better and avoids donkish play with me. River seems like a clear value raise, but can I fold getting better than 3-1?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Edit: I clearly love the word donk. Hero ($139.07) UTG ($110.02) MP ($38.05) Button ($60.43) SB ($69.20) Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, UTG calls $2. Flop: ($5.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4. Turn: ($13.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG calls $8. River: ($29.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $40</font>, Hero ?? |
#2
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
I don't know what half those stats mean. I think you gotta let this one go... river raises like that are seldom bluffs.
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#3
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
bump, only one reply? What do you think villains range is? Clear fold? Clear call?
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#4
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
I would fold unless I was playing badly.
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#5
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
Pretty easy fold imo.
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#6
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
Looks like a slowplay to me. I would fold unless I've seen villian do this type of thing on a bluff.
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#7
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
He has Ah 4h. He called the flop on the gutshot, then the turn with the flush draw, then raised the river when he hit. Regardless, he didn't hit top pair on the river (since the river didn't make a top pair), and I don't think he's raising here wtihout at least better than top pair. Easy fold. You'd have to be getting something like 5:1 to even consider calling. And I wouldn't give it serious thought until it was 7-8:1.
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#8
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold unless I was playing badly. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I play badly a lot though. |
#9
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
There is 87 in the pot and only 23 for me to call, thats 3.78-1. If I am good here 21% of the time its a profitable call (barely). Am I not good here a 5th of the time?
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#10
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Re: River raise comes out of nowhere
[ QUOTE ]
There is 87 in the pot and only 23 for me to call, thats 3.78-1. If I am good here 21% of the time its a profitable call (barely). Am I not good here a 5th of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I think you're good 10-20% of the time. You say he hasn't been playing completely terrible, and I just don't see anyone raising here with less than two pair. If he's bluffing and you caught him so be it, but you have to have a hell of a good read that he's capable of making than kind of a play AND makes it regularly. |
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