WSOP ME lines at Bodog

[JoshuaMayes]

The ME lines at Bodog.com seem pretty far off relative to one another. For example, Bodog has Hasan Habib at 700:1 against to win the WSOP ME. Some of the players that are more likely to win the ME than Hasan Habib according to Bodog:

Ben Affleck -- 625:1
Dutch Boyd -- 475:1
Tom McEvoy -- 425:1
Sammy Farha -- 325:1.

Bodog also gives Shannon Elizabeth, Ed Norton and Matt Damon a better shot (775:1) than Surinder Sunar (900:1). It looks like many of the odds are correlated more with television exposure and name recognition than with tournament poker skill.

[Swede]

Ben Affleck 625:1
Dutch Boyd 475:1
Matt Damon 775:1

are all horrible bets. I placed a small amount on David Chiu(1000:1). Perhaps other sites had better odds but I didn't have time to check.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Can you take either side of these?

[Mike Cuneo]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the players that are more likely to win the ME than Hasan Habib according to Bodog:

Ben Affleck -- 625:1
Dutch Boyd -- 475:1
Tom McEvoy -- 425:1
Sammy Farha -- 325:1.

Bodog also gives Shannon Elizabeth, Ed Norton and Matt Damon a better shot (775:1) than Surinder Sunar (900:1). It looks like many of the odds are correlated more with television exposure and name recognition than with tournament poker skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true.

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some of the players that are more likely to win the ME than Hasan Habib according to Bodog:

Ben Affleck -- 625:1
Dutch Boyd -- 475:1
Tom McEvoy -- 425:1
Sammy Farha -- 325:1.

Bodog also gives Shannon Elizabeth, Ed Norton and Matt Damon a better shot (775:1) than Surinder Sunar (900:1). It looks like many of the odds are correlated more with television exposure and name recognition than with tournament poker skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Care to follow up on that?? I just checked the line again, and only Shannon Elizabeth, Ed Norton and Matt Damon have moved. They are now 800:1, but still ahead of Surinder, who is at 900:1, and David Chiu at 1000:1.

[Daliman]

The initial lines are based on a few things:

#1 Poker skill.
#2 Recognition.
#3 Chance they will be bet on.

I guarantee you that some excellent internet pro that no one has heard of will bet on has a much better chance than Damon, Affleck, Elizabeth, and the rest, but since they get bet on, their #'s go down, his go up. The odds are set similarly to horse racing, where the betting ends up dictating the prices If a player is at 1000-1 to win, and someone bets 5k on him, his odds will drop through the floor to maybe around 300-1 or less to offset this bet, plus for other reasons.


Put it this way, if you happen to be playing in the main event, You could probably pretty easily make yourself the "favorite" to win by betting a ton of $$$ on yourself. It only makes to the betting favorite though, and not what I believe the proper term for is the "odds-on favorite", but I may have that wrong,(i CERTAINLY have the sentence formation wrong). Either way, point is, these odds have little resemblance to actual chance of winning the ME.

[revots33]

And to say anyone has a 50-1 chance of winning this thing is crazy, given the size of the field.

If I had to pick one player to win, I'd go with The Grinder, but not at 175-1.

[drewjustdrew]

Do they post new odds as people are eliminated, like at the end of the day?

It would be nice to have a horse running at the final table for 1000-1 to win, then be able to bet on the other 8 opponents and lock up a nice win.

[Mike Cuneo]

It's kinda like sports betting, a team who is a marginal favorite might not be the "better" team but simply more people are betting on them and the oddsmakers have to adjust their lines accordingly.

[USGrant]

What would be the odds of top 50 tournament pros (subjective, but a decent field could be made up) NOT winning. e.g. Fischman, DN, Ferguson, Hellboy, the Brunsons, Grinder, etc.