Hand...

krishanleong · #1 09-18-2005, 10:08 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero folds.

Villian was 75/16 preflop. What do we think?

Krishan

Mig · #2 09-18-2005, 10:24 AM

Vilain shows 45o

krishanleong · #3 09-18-2005, 10:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vilain shows 45o

[/ QUOTE ]

kinda short thoughts.

Krishan

bds · #4 09-18-2005, 10:38 AM

I don't think it's generally +EV for me to raise turn or later with less than 2 pair (or a great draw or to stategically try to fold another player in the pot, etc). I have occasionally gotten called down by a worse ace, but not often. Do you think he is going to call your river raise with a worse hand than yours? If he has an ace, the only aces worse than yours are A4, 5, 6 and 7. Also, these guys that play any 2 cards really can have "any 2 cards" and my ability to read what they have is dismal. A lower pair has to fold to your raise. I'd personally rather see a showdown, note what he had and play accordingly the next time around. Am I leaving money on the table by playing this way?

Roy6 · #5 09-18-2005, 10:44 AM

I don't really understand your river plan. You only beat A4-A7 that will call your raise.

Mig · #6 09-18-2005, 10:44 AM

What is his agression postflop ? Maniac side ? The flop comes and he go nuts. If the cap was 10 bets he would have capped it ... I think it's either a low set or the made str8... I don't set a lot of 76% player going nuts on a pfraiser with an ace on the board. He doesn't look afraid of the AA possibility..

#7 09-18-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What is his agression postflop ? Maniac side ? The flop comes and he go nuts. If the cap was 10 bets he would have capped it ... I think it's either a low set or the made str8... I don't set a lot of 76% player going nuts on a pfraiser with an ace on the board. He doesn't look afraid of the AA possibility..

[/ QUOTE ]

What about aces up?

#8 09-18-2005, 10:59 AM

You don't have aggression #s on him? If he's passive, you can bet your last dollar he flopped a wheel. If he's aggressive, you can get a few flop bets in, maybe two turn bets, but back off by then if he doesn't......and by all means, get to a showdown! I hate that river raise/fold. What's the point?

Mig · #9 09-18-2005, 11:01 AM

I think a 16 pfr will raise most of them UTG ...

krishanleong · #10 09-18-2005, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really understand your river plan. You only beat A4-A7 that will call your raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well villian raises 16% of his hands. The is roughly equivalent to a regular 2+2er. Generally players like this tend to open raise lighter UTG and tighter on steals, but ignoring that, we can safely discount AQ+ to 5% and AJ to about 30%.

It's possible that Villian won't 3-bet A6-A9 on the flop. But I think it's very possible that he'll 3-bet A4 and A5. Sets are also of course possible.

So I'm behind to

A2 - 6 ways
A3 - 6 ways
22 - 6 ways
33 - 6 ways
A8 - 6 ways
A9 - 6 ways

36 hands total.

I'm ahead of

A4 - 9 ways discounted to 50% - 4.5
A5 - 9 ways discounted to 50% - 4.5
A6 - 9 ways discounted to 30% - 3
A7 - 9 ways discounted to 30% - 3

15 hands I'm ahead of.

Sure doesn't look good. I actually formed my plan on the turn and followed through on the river regardless of the card. It's suprising what a difference a relative blank does for equity. If the 9 on the river was a K, I would be behind 30 and ahead of 18. Still not good but a bit better. 2-1 instead of 3-1.

Krishan