Interesting JJ w/ a SF-Draw

[Origami]

5-5 NL, 3rd hand since I've sat down.

Folded to CO who opens for $30. I am in the SB with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain is tight, and I know this raise means AA/KK/AK. Although I figure I'm behind, I decide to call and see this flop.

Flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check and he goes all-in for about $500.

Now here is the tricky part. Obviously, I've got a straight-flush draw along with the 2 remaining Jacks for a total of 17 outs.

But just before I uttered the word "Call", I had a thought. If I *know* he's got AA/KK/AK he could possibly have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in any of these possible holdings (or both A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for AK). I would probably rule out the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] becuase I don't think he would push it on the flop. I know from experience with him that this is an overpair that he is protecting on an ugly flop.

This kills my flush draw outs, leaving me with only 6 non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] outs for the straight and the 2 remaining Jacks for a total of 8 outs.

Does this read dictate a CALL or a FOLD?

[BZ_Zorro]

Why would he push here with the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? There's not much to be afraid of on the flop except being beaten already.

Are you sure QQ isn't a possible holding?

Anyway since you're probably behind and maybe hopelessly behind, this is an easy fold. The absolute best you can hope for is 60/40 with a non-diamond AA or AdKx.

Jc Jd 33.43
As Ad 65.96

Jc Jd 59.39
As Ah 40.00

Jc Jd 50.10
Ks Kh 49.70

Jc Jd 20.61
Ks Kd 78.99

Jc Jd 43.03
Qs Qh 55.76

Jc Jd 62.32
Ks Ad 37.68

No thanks. Interesting hand, thanks for posting.

<edit> Hmm, I might have to think about this some more.
[ QUOTE ]
I know from experience with him that this is an overpair that he is protecting on an ugly flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
If your read is that good, and he's protecting, would he be pushing with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] overpair? The only thing that makes sense to push here is QQ, AdKx, non diamond AA, or K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx. Still a fold I think, too marginal. Interesting hand.

[xorbie]

There is not a single person alive whose open raising standards in the CO are AK/AA/KK.

[Origami]

I agree. However, I was referring to the size of his bet. If he had less of a holding, he would have made it $15 or $20. $30 is his standard big-pair raise.

[Origami]

Zorro,

I really feel that he had AA or KK and was simply trying to protect his overpair. I had outs, but my thinking was that the majority of those outs were diamonds and how I would be in deep chit if either his KK or AA included a diamond.

[snappo]

I don't see how you can count the 2 jacks as outs. If he has KK or AK your jacks are not outs, they are outs only if he has AA.

[sourbeaver]

You only have 30$ invested in this pot and you'll have to call 500$ for a hand that figures you to be, with his most probable hand range considered, at best a coin flip and most probably a 1.5:1, 2:1 dog. Wait for a better spot, IMHO.