Where's the fold, Where's the Raise?

centja1 · #1 07-26-2005, 03:10 PM

Villain is 22.5/9/1.4 over 200 hands. I just felt weird about this hand while playing it. After a couple of days, I've come to the realization that the flop call was thin at best, but probably good. The reason I made it at the time was the backdoor flush draw (albeit to the third nuts). But, i figured I had at least 15% equity in this pot against a PF three-bettor.

The question that I'm wrangling with is whether I should raise the turn? If I'm ahead, I'm likely way ahead unless he has the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], in which case, he has 8 outs to beat me. If I'm behind, even after the ace, I'm the one with club outs, assuming he doesn't three-bet with AKo.

I really had no idea where i stood in this hand except that I was pretty sure I had the equity against his range to at the very least call him down.

Does anyone go for a free showdown line on the turn? I have a feeling that would have been the best approach.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

A_C_Slater · #2 07-26-2005, 03:16 PM

It's okay, I might fold. His 3 betting range is probably AK and AA-TT. If you didn't have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I would fold for sure.

I don't think a turn raise for a free showdown is good because you can't fold to a 3bet here.

jba · #3 07-26-2005, 03:18 PM

I think the flop call is fine.

I like raising the turn for a free showdown and checking through on the river unimproved. If you're behind AK you lose the same, but if you suck out with a club or a Q (12 outs) you will win an extra bet. With your line you are not going to win three BBs on the turn and river if that fourth club falls. The only problem with that plan is if he has JJ-KK he may find a fold and you miss a bet, but I think you're still coming out ahead -- and he very well may not be able to fold those hands all the time.

A_C_Slater · #4 07-26-2005, 03:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop call is fine.

I like raising the turn for a free showdown and checking through on the river unimproved. If you're behind AK you lose the same, but if you suck out with a club or a Q (12 outs) you will win an extra bet. With your line you are not going to win three BBs on the turn and river if that fourth club falls. The only problem with that plan is if he has JJ-KK he may find a fold and you miss a bet, but I think you're still coming out ahead -- and he very well may not be able to fold those hands all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if villian bets a river club or Q and then hero raises and villian calls? That's 3 bets, right?

A_C_Slater · #5 07-26-2005, 03:29 PM

Jennifer Harmon offers a good example of when to use the turn free showdown play in SS2. It should be used with more marginal hands, not when you have top pair/good kicker on the turn.

You open raise in LP with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and only the BB calls.

(4.5 SB)
2 players --FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, you bet, BB raises, you call.

(4 BB)
2 players -- TURN: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, you now should raise....

BB could be betting a flush draw and there's enough bets in the pot to make this possibility a call. Also, your opponent may fold the best hand in this situation, like 88 or K2. And you can fold to a 3bet if reraised.

In your example you can't fold the best hand and you can't fold to a 3bet.

And if a A or 7 hits in this example you will make more with a value bet when called and behind.

molawn2mo · #6 07-26-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop call is fine.

I like raising the turn for a free showdown and checking through on the river unimproved. If you're behind AK you lose the same, but if you suck out with a club or a Q (12 outs) you will win an extra bet. With your line you are not going to win three BBs on the turn and river if that fourth club falls. The only problem with that plan is if he has JJ-KK he may find a fold and you miss a bet, but I think you're still coming out ahead -- and he very well may not be able to fold those hands all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive me but I think that this line is horrible.

1. If villain has no A he folds or 3bets (then what?). 0 bets you win.
2. If he has no A and if he holds the Kc, maybe KK or KQ, he will call and CF the river. 1 bet you win
3. If he has an A (AK, AQs) he might 3 bet. Are you folding to the 3 bet? Be consistant with number 1, above.

This line appears to me to expose hero to being pushed off a winning hand and/or paying an extra bet to lose.

Edit: I think you played the hand well.

centja1 · #7 07-26-2005, 03:39 PM

Yeah, I agree with the fact that I can't fold to a three-bet here since villain would most likely three-bet holding K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Ku.

My weak-tightish feelings at the time were that I probably needed a Q or [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river and barring that I had at least enough hand to call him down and therefore wanted to get there as cheaply as possible. I was definitely not folding, but didn't at any point feel like i had enough of a hand to raise.

I'm starting to feel like missing a bet in this particular situation was not a very big mistake either way. Somewhat analogous to checking behind with outs although I had to weakly call behind with outs.

jba · #8 07-26-2005, 03:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

What if villian bets a river club or Q and then hero raises and villian calls? That's 3 bets, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the river brings a fourth club and we are ahead, I suspect villain will probably check/call or bet/fold.

however in looking into this more I think you are right that raising for a free showdown is a bad play here. In looking at his hand range I was making the assumption that you are going to make more money against AK this way... the problem is there are only 8 ways to make AK now, and 2 of those ways (AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) you only have 3 outs against, not 12 -- and villain is probably going to abuse you with that K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The extra money you make off of JJ-KK with this passive line when a river blank hits I think is worth going for.

so, I like OP's line now

mikeyvegas · #9 07-26-2005, 03:43 PM

I play it the same. This is one of those hands that I call if he bets, and bet if he checks. Way ahead, or way behind.

A_C_Slater · #10 07-26-2005, 03:48 PM

Another problem with the turn raise is you give him a chance to get away from KK-99 and you might miss a possible extra BB on the river from a bluff or perceived value bet or a check/value bet by you.

Also, You're pretty much hoping he only has JJ-99 here. All his other possible 3betting hands kill at least 3 of your outs. I changed my mind. I think this should be mucked on the flop.