Wait For A Better Spot?

[Rushmore]

Please excuse my format (or lack thereof).

From tonight's PPM Super:

We're down to 68. Top 5 get seats, next 3 good-sized payouts. Blinds 150/300. Hero has 2200 in the BB. Average stack at about 5000.

One MP limper (T9000)(donkish, plays any ace, any suited, etc). Solid button (T7000) limps. Solid aggressive SB (T5000) completes. Hero checks with K3s.

Flop comes 27K rainbow.

SB bets 800.

My action?

[SoCalPat]

If the SB is as solid/aggressive as you believe, he's not betting into three other players with a hand you can beat. Plus there are two others to act after you who could already have you beaten.

With one hand to go before I'm out of the blinds, I muck this and hope for something better.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If the SB is as solid/aggressive as you believe, he's not betting into three other players with a hand you can beat. Plus there are two others to act after you who could already have you beaten.

With one hand to go before I'm out of the blinds, I muck this and hope for something better.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well stated.

Regards,
Woodguy

[SoCalPat]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well stated.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. Reinforcement is good, as it gives me the idea I know what I'm talking about once in a while.

What do you think the SB has? I'm all for merely completing with my AKo here and trapping weaker aces and kings who will never put me on a premium hand.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
If the SB is as solid/aggressive as you believe, he's not betting into three other players with a hand you can beat. Plus there are two others to act after you who could already have you beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are some thoughts:

I am confident the SB has me beat.

He's raising AK preflop at this table, 100% of the time, so that's out. I discount two pair or a set as hands he would check here with this board against these players.

Yes, he might hold KQ or KJ, and have a fairly easy call.

But I am really wondering if he can lay down KT or worse, in this particular situation.

I may have overthought it, but my thinking was that if I can get past MP and LP, the SB has to give my raise some respect. It's almost half of his stack. If I'm in his shoes, and I'm holding KT or worse, I am going to be pretty convinced that I could very likely have a dominated hand.

I could let go of a weak king in his spot.

So, I am betting on three things with my stack-which-is-too-short-to-wait-too-long-yet-big-enough-right-now-to-weild-at-least-some-strength:

1.) I can get past the other two players (remember: I'm confident one of the kings is in the SB hand, reducing the likelihood of MP or LP holding one), and

2.) He can let go of a king that beats mine, and

3.) My kicker is live and/or there is some chance of a split pot, for those times I am called by a weakish king.

I actually convinced myself that Jupiter and Mars had fallen into alignment.

Was I just tired and lazy and stupid? Or was there some decent logic to the play?

(I tanked, had the above thought process, then pushed, in case nobody figured that out.)

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think the SB has? I'm all for merely completing with my AKo here and trapping weaker aces and kings who will never put me on a premium hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing I should have mentioned originally was that there was a lot of limp punishment going on at this table. Guys would limp, get jacked up, and lay down. I was virtually certain SB didn't hold AK.

[adanthar]

Here's the problem with what you've just said:

1)This is a winner take all tourney or close to it.
2)He's betting too much to have a K3. As you've figured out, this is a decent kicker that wants to know where he stands.
3)You have no chips, at least not enough to make him fold a king above, say, a 4. He's gotta call 1300 into a pot of over 3K and he has 6K behind. He's calling. You would.
4)IF you had a monster and wanted action what you'd do is call the flop, *then* wait for his check (if he's observant he's checking K5) and go all in. You'd probably still get called but once in a while I'd be folding K5 in his spot, especially if the turn was an ace or paired the board. On the flop, there's no way.

So basically, I'd fold and it wouldn't be close.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
1)This is a winner take all tourney or close to it.
2)He's betting too much to have a K3. As you've figured out, this is a decent kicker that wants to know where he stands.
3)You have no chips, at least not enough to make him fold a king above, say, a 4. He's gotta call 1300 into a pot of over 3K and he has 6K behind. He's calling. You would.
4)IF you had a monster and wanted action what you'd do is call the flop, *then* wait for his check (if he's observant he's checking K5) and go all in. You'd probably still get called but once in a while I'd be folding K5 in his spot, especially if the turn was an ace or paired the board. On the flop, there's no way.

So basically, I'd fold and it wouldn't be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, yeah, yup, right, true, and absolutely.

I think I was looking for a reason to make this play, and I just found it because I wanted to.

If I had a deeper stack, it might have worked.

On the other hand, with a deeper stack, I wouldn't be inclined to want to find a reason to make the play in the first place.

Damned ironic poker.

Thanks for the reality check.

[Jason Strasser]

Fold.

Sb couldnt be semibluffing with much on this board, so if you call you are either praying he has a lower pair (which is unlikely given the amount of people in this pot), or is bluffing. Well, actually if he bet here with less than a pair of kings, it is probably as a bluff. And even if you are ahead of Sb, you have a few people yet to act who probably limped with low-mid pairs or Axs Kxs type hands, or any 2 broadway. .. They of course will not fold often if they have hit their hands, especially the clown.

You have plenty of chips to fold and I dont think its very close.
-Jason

[curtains]

Id fold