TPGK + Flush draw vs. an all in

[psuasskicker]

Realizing that this is a small stakes hand (and I posted it over there too), I thought this might make an interesting case for some more experienced players to look at. What makes it interesting to me is the presence of an opponent behind me also facing the all in and that cold called the original bet and my raise. I'm curious what people's thoughts are as to the best play here. Add a "0" to the end of all the dollar amounts if needing to make this more mid-high stakes-like. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

As posted on small stakes...

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Screwin' around trying to clear a bonus on a couple NL $50 six max tables last night, and ran across this hand.

$50 NL Hold'em
Table Table 14119 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 5: midnight234 ( $59.2 )
Seat 6: psuasskicker ( $180.95 )
Seat 8: dsp233 ( $110.8 )
Seat 10: fljuggler ( $117.6 )
Seat 3: beantown1983 ( $47.3 )
Seat 1: onall4s ( $33 )
onall4s posts small blind [$0.5].
beantown1983 posts big blind [$1].
dsp233 posts big blind + dead [$1.5].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to psuasskicker [ Ts Ks ]
midnight234 raises [$3].
psuasskicker calls [$3].
dsp233 folds.
fljuggler calls [$3].
onall4s folds.
beantown1983 calls [$2].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Td, 6s ]
beantown1983 checks.
midnight234 bets [$6].
psuasskicker raises [$18].
fljuggler calls [$18].
beantown1983 folds.
midnight234 is all-In ($38.2 over the raise to $18).
psuasskicker ?????

Guy behind me has maybe $96 left in his stack, and sat at the table maybe 15 - 20 hands before. He's not good, but not totally stupid, but you don't know a whole lot about him. The guy in front of you is fairly aggressive, but not totally over aggressive...you figure he's most likely got you beat right now.

- Chris

[zaxx19]

Am I weak tight??

Im not calling a raise with K10s here in a small stakes room myself precisely because I dont wanna face this type of decision. I prefer calling with 22 here personally or 78s.

[psuasskicker]

Im not calling a raise with K10s here in a small stakes room myself precisely because I dont wanna face this type of decision. I prefer calling with 22 here personally or 78s.

I don't think it's weak tight to make that decision at all. This is a hand that I drop in many (most, actually) situations. But at the same time, I had a very large stack, and there were a couple other players with very reasonable stacks behind me that were seeing over 50% of the flops.

Honestly, part of it was that I was playing a couple tables and made a snap decision. "I have $180, others behind me have a lot, it's only $3 and I have position on the raiser." If he'd have made it more than $4, as stupid as it might sound, I'd have folded. But I'm seeing the flop for less than 2% of my stack with the chance at some decent money after the flop. And it's a short table, so...

Factors that would have made me fold this hand PF (mutually exclusive...if any existed, I would have folded):
- The raise was for more than $4.
- It was a full ten player table.
- The raiser has less than $50 in his stack.
- No one behind me has an attractive stack, or if they do, their VP$IP is low enough such that I don't feel they'll likely call the raise.
- The raiser is the type of player that will bet me off a strong draw right off the bat, and when he does he'll never get off his hand to a semi-bluff all in.
- Players likely to play in this pot with me are so tight that they won't play the pot with me if I hit a hand I like, so the reward is only what's going into the pot before the flop.

I liked the implied odds with this hand if I caught a flop I liked. I actually thought my raise would push the bettor off the hand. Until he came back over me all in, at which point I figure I'm not best.

Thing is, I've got a boatload of outs here. Up to 14, but I have trouble counting anything less than the flush outs. Maybe I'm up against AsQs from the bettor (VERY unlikely), and maybe the cold caller is on a flush draw too (I consider this to be unlikely from a mathematical standpoint).

But this is a hand I'm gonna get involved in when the bettor puts me all in. I'm getting paid over 2.7 to 1 from the pot with a ton of outs against any hand that currently has me beaten (other than TT, unlikely cause I have a T, or another set which I consider to be unlikely since PF raiser wouldn't have raised with a smaller pocket pair, and cold caller would have moved more chips on the flop if he hit a set). I'm almost a coin flip against any overpair other than KK.

To me, it's a question of "do I call and try to get the guy behind me to play, and what if he then moves all in?" vs. "do I raise all in and try to push the cold caller off the pot as well?"

- Chris

[GimmeDaWatch]

Ya, I wouldnt call preflop but whatever, given that you did, I think you gotta call here. Villain's most likely hand is an overpair (or mayyyybe AQ-AJ spades), which you're roughly even money against (unless its KK) w/14 outs and the pots odds more than makes this an easy call. There's some chance the guy behind you has a set, I suppose, but not enough of one to make you fold and even if he does you have outs. At any rate, given stack sizes I think its a pretty easy call and Im just hoping Im not up againt TT.

[zaxx19]

Oh wait 6 handed.....

oooooops [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[GimmeDaWatch]

I dont think it matters much. If the guy behind you CC's villain's all-in he's playing for his stack anyway. If he's got a set, he's moving in either way, but if he's got a hand like AT,JJ, or the nut flush draw you're in a roughly even race with him as well, with you having a slight advantage. although I suppose moving in might have some off chance of cleaning up your spade outs if you can get him to fold a flush draw.

[psuasskicker]

although I suppose moving in might have some off chance of cleaning up your spade outs if you can get him to fold a flush draw.

This is the big question in my mind. Worst case scenario for me has the bettor on an overpair, and the cold caller on the nut flush draw. In that case, I'm down to at most five outs which would obviously be a folding situation.

But what are the odds he's on the nut flush draw even if he's on a flush draw. If he's flush drawing to less than the nuts, I want him in. If he's on an overpair, I want him in. If he's on any T (even AT...remember, I'm going under the assumption that I need to hit to win), I want him in.

I'm thinking that virtually the only hand I want to get rid of here is AsXs...and I'm not 100% convinced that he'd get off that hand if I moved in on him.

I do think it's an intreguing decision.

- Chris

[GimmeDaWatch]

But what are the odds he's on the nut flush draw even if he's on a flush draw.

Not good enough to even think about folding. Even in the worst case scenario you mentioned, Axs only has 10 outs against you in the large sidepot (and only 8 if villain holds AA).

[psuasskicker]

But what are the odds he's on the nut flush draw even if he's on a flush draw.

Not good enough to even think about folding. Even in the worst case scenario you mentioned, Axs only has 10 outs against you in the large sidepot (and only 8 if villain holds AA).

Yeah, that's a great point...the side pot would be big enough that, while I still don't come out ahead, I still virtually break even if I lose the main pot but win the side pot (assuming I get him all in on the turn if not the flop). Even if he's on the nut flush draw I'm not bad off at all.

I said I think that I'm beat for sure...I'm positive the overpair is out there (also makes the guy behind less likely on the nut flush draw if PF raiser has AsAx). So the question is, do I want the guy behind me in or out? I don't really want him in on a nut flush draw (I'd be worried if I didn't get him in on the flop that I couldn't on the turn...could he give that up? I don't think he could, but who knows with the weak play of people today). Anything else, the question is, considering I feel I'm already beaten by the PF raiser, does the equity I get from keeping him in give me more than I lose if I leave him in the hand and he beats me even if I hit.

Honestly I think the chances he can do that are far less than the money I get paid when I'm better than him. I think I want him in this pot.

I just called here, half hoping he would go all in over top of me. I love my equity no matter how you cut it on this hand, and think I want to give myself the chance to win the most money possible when I hit one of my several outs.

- Chris

[trevor]

I'm going to try and keep the flames down low but seriously......read some of this out loud.

[ QUOTE ]
If he'd have made it more than $4, as stupid as it might sound, I'd have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, that does sound stupid.

[ QUOTE ]
Thing is, I've got a boatload of outs here. Up to 14

[/ QUOTE ]

Please, you have no where near that many. I'd really be suprised if the guy behind you wasn't on the same draw.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking that virtually the only hand I want to get rid of here is AsXs

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a set?

[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Td, 6s ]
beantown1983 checks.
midnight234 bets [$6].
psuasskicker raises [$18].

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not smooth call and let the guy in behind? Wouldn't you want more people in w/ this draw? Fine, he calls $18 cold. He has a set or a flush draw, he can't call w/ much else.

I don't like the hand, pretty much from start to where/when ever the hell it finished (hopefully w/ you dragging the pot).

It just seems like such a monkey play. Yippie, I flopped a draw and I have a big stack lets gamble. No ill will ment whatsoever, but I dislike your play on too many levels.