Discussing Hands from "How Good is Your Limit Hold 'Em" (Part 1)

[Zygote]

Let me start by saying that so far i think the book has a lot of value (i'm halfway through). From what i've read, i have noticed that there is a lot of good advice in the book and, also, a bit of questionable advice.

The book is targeted to experienced players so i'd at least expect most of these players to always be questioning whatever they're reading. Throughout the week I plan to post a few different hands i'd like to discuss and question. My critiques or thoughts may be wrong, but please try not to flame me and, instead, just explain the issue. For now, this post will only attempt to thoroughly analyze the reasoning for the river decision on Hand 9.

*Byron Jacobs, if there is a problem with the way I am posting these hands, let me know and i will change or delete the posts.

*Please note that I am only excerpting the relevant parts of the hand, for those who dont own the this title. In the book, there is much more content on this hand.
----------------------------------------------------------
Hand 9

This is a ten player $20-$40 game. You are in the big blind with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. TheMan is in the cut-off. TheMan is a very good player: tight, aggressive, combative and hard to read.

Pre-flop

TheMan open-raises. The button and small blind both fold.

There is $70 in the pot and it is $20 to you. You call.

Flop

The flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

There is $90 in the pot and it is $20 to bet. We can make the same assumption that if you now check, then your opponent will almost certainly bet. So you check and TheMan bets. You just call.

Turn
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

There is $130 in the pot and it is $40 to bet. You bet and TheMan just calls.

River

The river is
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. There is $210 in the pot and it is $40 to you. Do you (a) check or (b) bet?

You bet. TheMan think for a while and folds.

----------------------------------------------------

Byron Jacobs defends this river play like this:

"The J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is unlikely to have helped TheMan. If he had a jack in his hand you would probably have heard about it on the turn. It is probable that you are winning, and it is also likely that if you check TheMan will just check it back. Bet and hope for a crying call from two high cards. "

Now if you remember, the only information given about TheMan is that he is tight-aggressive and tough to read. From this, we can reason that he would most likely only start pre-flop with a certain range of hands; a relatively small range of hands. Post-flop, we can assume that he wouldn't do anything stupid, but he will probably mix up his play and be slightly unconventional so he becomes harder to read. From this interpretation, i have a hard time understanding why BJ is so quick to eliminate all hands that have a J or better. Also, BJ hints that TheMan is unlikely to bluff on the river by saying that he is most likely to check behind. Someone who is aggressive, combative, and tough to read, IMO, would be very likely put in a river bet with or w/o a hand.

I should mention that i think his conclusion is correct and that betting out would be the best deicision. However, i contend that even if TheMan holds several strong hands and is very unlikely to check behind, betting out is still the best decision. To show this, let's start by looking at the different possible hands TheMan could be in with at this point and how many combinations each hand has.

Hands That Beat You
-------------------

AJ (16 ways)
KJ (16)
QJ (16)
J10(16)
J9s (4)
J8s (4)
A6 (16)
67s (4)
Any PP (excluding 44 and 55) that did not connect (42ways)
Any Set (12) +
--------
=146


Hands You Beat
--------------
A3 (16)
A2 (16
44 (6)
AQ (16)
AK (16)
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1)
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img](1)
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1)
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10) +
---------------
=83

Is there anything I am missing? Remember, I am assuming TheMan has quite a tight pre-flop style and is fairly good post flop. He is also tough to read and can be notably aggressive.

Case 1: Assume you bet the river
------

Lets say he raises any Jack and all sets; that represents about 37% of his holdings (84/229). If he raises, lets assume you fold to keep things simple. Further, he will call with any hand that is better than bottom pair, which accounts for about 44% (100/229) of his possible hands. Of those, 62% (62/100) will beat you while you will beat the remaining 38% (38/100) of his hands. Lastly, he will fold the other 19% of his hands to a bet.

Expected Value:


(0.37)(-40) +(0.27)(-40) + (0.17)(290) + (0.19)(250)
= $71

Case 2: Assume you check the river
-------

Lets say he will bet 94% of time and when he does you will call. After calling a bet, you should win about 32% and lose the other 68% of the time. Also, he will only check behind a missed flush draw, which obviously costs him the pot the remaining 6% of the time.

Expected Value:

(0.30)(250) + (0.64)(-40) + (0.06)(210)
= $62

---------------

So we can see that betting is the best option even if TheMan has quite a few stronger hands and is very likely to bluff-bet. This is an interesting conclusion that i don't think BJ realized. Any thoughts?

[YoureToast]

im reading this too....i would suggest, however, posting this in the ML forum since the book is pretty specific to that subject and the readers there will probably have more to say.

[raisins]

Your math is off in your assumptions. However, I agree with yout results.

AJ - JT are not made 16 ways. There are 16 combinations of these hands before the flop. On the river we have seen 2 Jacks, so there are 8 combinations of these hands and 2 combinations of the suited Jacks, J9s & J8s. A6 is made 12 ways and 67s 3 ways. The hands that make a set: 66, 33 and 22 are made 3 ways each, so 9 combinations.

On a different note, here is why I think CO is likely to raise the turn with a J. The main reason is that he is likely to be good. Is you had a hand that happened to beat a J the CR on the turn is the more probable line. While it would be great to get a bet - 3 bet in with an overpair or better he won't raise unless he has a J or close to it in value, and occassionally some overcards (especially with a backdoor flush draw). The turn CR is more likely to get more money in the pot with your strong hand. You don't have enough information at that point in the hand to put him on a J with any certainty. So, a strong player will hit this raise a large portion of the time if not every time with top pair when a blank that puts some redraws comes off, since he can't put you on a strong hand very easily. Especially since the most likely hand for him to put you on is an underpair, to which the appropriate response by him (if holding a J) is to raise. A supporting reason for his raise with a J is that you can't necessarily fold an underpair to the raise either if he will sometimes raise in that spot with a hand like AK, which I think some tough players will. I do understand though that this point is not very relevant to your post where you are showing that a bet on the river is correct even with a stronger than expected hand range for opponent.

The basic reason why it is better to bet out on the river can be stated as, opponent will call more losing hands than he will bet. A lot of A high hands will check behind us as he fears exactly the hand we have, a small pair, and he knows a call is likely. However, if he raises I think we have to pay off. In my opinion the vast majority of J hands will raise the turn making it difficult for me to give much respect to a J. I don't think the middle pairs like 77 or 88 raise the river, although TT or 99 might, so I call down a tricky opponent here expecting to be good much more often than 1 in 9.

I'm looking forward to the rest of your posts.

regards,

raisins

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Zygote:

I think there's a little bit of a problem here. You are posting way too much of someone's book that is under copyright. In the future, you should first get the author's permission to post this much material, and then he needs to notify us that's it's okay.

Also to the author: If you want us to take this down, send me a private message and it will come down.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
You are posting way too much of someone's book that is under copyright.

[/ QUOTE ]

His post is clearly not in violation of copyright... lets not be ridiculous.

[Easy E]

I might have to agree with Mason here, Jeff. If the OP does a lot of hands, a lot of the book could show up here.

Whether it is a technical copywright violation or not, it might be better to check with the author first...

Or not. Thinking over this again, I'm a bit torn now.

Mason? Further clarification?

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Easy:

let's just say that we are concious of this sort of thing. We don't want our copyrighted material appearing on other sites, and I suppose that this author may feel the same way. On the other hand, if he says that it's okay with him, then it's okay with me.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Zygote]

I wasn't planning on posting anymore hands until i got a reaction from Byron Jacobs regarding this post. Concerning this post, you may obviously delete it if BJ has a problem and i would have no problem with this. Do note that i made an effort to tell the readers of the post that if they bought the book there would be much more content on the hand; i only excerpted the relevant parts. I do respect your concern Mason and hopefully everyone will realize that i am only trying to incite some quality poker discussions.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I might have to agree with Mason here, Jeff. If the OP does a lot of hands, a lot of the book could show up here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker hand permutations cannot be copyrighted. Neither can a simple player description.

The OP made it clear that he was quoting the book and he left out all of the quiz questions. Very little of the book's content was reproduced.

To OP: Good post.

[Jeff W]

Fair Use Law