Commerce 10-20 NL Hand 3 of 3

[Ulysses]

I have everyone covered. My opponent has about $1400. Neither of the other guys in this hand have very big stacks. He seems very straightforward and neither particularly good or bad. Pretty easy to read, slightly on the weak side, and I haven't seen him get out of line yet, but we haven't been playing too long. All-in-all, I think straightforward sums him up pretty well.

I limp w/ 77 in EP. He calls. Wacky/tricky/strange guy calls. SB calls. JA Sucker calls in BB.

Flop is 789 (I don't remember if there was a flush draw)

$100 in pot. I check. He bets 30. Wacky guy calls. Sucker calls. I make it $200. He now immediately says raise. He thinks a second and raises to $800 straight. He has $600 behind. Other two guys fold. What now?

[turnipmonster]

I have never folded a set playing big bet poker, but there's a first time for everything. he just completly committed himself to the hand, and at worst he has top two. he probably has the nuts. I fold.

--turnipmonster

[scooby]

Given the lack of preflop action and that he's straightforward, the only hand I can put him on that you beat is 89, or 10-10, given that 67 is very unlikely. I'd fold, and if called expect to be shown 10-J about two thirds the time, a higher set about 1/4 the time, and something you can beat about 1/6 the time. I'd fold this. By the way, I really like your NL posts...

[SlyAK]

I guess this is the differerence between live NL and small to medium NL online. My first read on this hand was to move all-in quickly. I think the most important thing is how would he play hands like AT, KT, QT???? Would he take this chance with an overcard and an OESD??? Would he play 2-pair this way?

Since you describe him as straightforward, I would assume he has to have a real hand. The more I think about it, it does seem that a set or a straight are both very likely. 2-pair and some combination of top pair and straight draw are also possible. Given your read it is probably a good fold and I think more times than not you will be behind here, but I think it is closer than the other posters think!!

Sly

[TATCCITW]

I agree with the others. You described him as a tricky player but it is unlikely that he would try and move someone who checked raised off a pot without a better hand.

[gcoutu]

Tough hand altogether. This is the curse of limping around with a pocket pair pre flop (I do it too). The problem: you have no information about the strength of opponents' hands until you have check raised. A good player folds that hand with your read of his play. I would say he flopped a beatable straight and needed to get the two pair and sets out. Tough, but good lay down.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the others. You described him as a tricky player but it is unlikely that he would try and move someone who checked raised off a pot without a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

El Diablo was having pronoun problems while posting these hands. The guy who raises here is not the tricky guy. The tricky player called in the middle and folded to the raise from the straightforward guy. That left me and straighforward guy.

[Ulysses]

FWIW, I also remember now that the board was rainbow.

[ML4L]

Hey Diablo,

From now on, I think all of my posts are basically gonna be "I say whatever turnip and Matt Flynn say." Can't miss too badly with that, right?

I agree with turnip on this one again. His initial bet might either be "that flop scared the hell out of me" or "I flopped a monster and want action." But, the insta-raise of a pot-committing amount from a straightforward player is not a good thing to face. Could you not get a read while he was raising?

Ick. You beat 98. Lose to everything else. There is almost no dead money in there, so you're risking a lot to win not all that much. Risking $1400 to win $1800. You're up 4-1 on 98, down 2-1 on a straight, and down 15-1 against a set. That last one is the killer; he doesn't have to have a set all that often to have you in bad shape.

Sigh. I fold. Again.

ML4L

PS To give you an idea of how much common sense I have, I was reading this post this morning and thinking, "Hmm, that Diablo guy has a lot of posts and plays high-stakes. Wonder why I haven't seen him post here before... Turnip clued me in, and now I feel like an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you not get a read while he was raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, here was the read: I bet 30 into this pot and now I'm confidently raising to 800. I friggin' love my hand.