Learning to walk. Standard?

aflaba · #1 02-23-2005, 06:47 PM

Villain
VPIP 30
PFR 10
AF 1.5

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.33 BB

Can't believe I'm posting this. It must be standard, right?

mmcd · #2 02-23-2005, 07:09 PM

You may want to reread the pot-odds and draws sections of whatever poker books you own.

twowords · #3 02-23-2005, 07:14 PM

Gotta call that bro. Bet the river if you hit anything (and call with top pair if raised) and check and usually fold if you don't.

gonores · #4 02-23-2005, 07:26 PM

Gotta call this turn.

highland · #5 02-23-2005, 07:28 PM

looks good to me. While you have the odds to call if your 10 outs are all good, it's pretty likely that you're either reverse-dominated or he's already made his 2-pair. I'd say the 1.5 aggro factor suggests he's probably not hammering away with a flush draw. In fact if he does have a flush draw, it probably hit the J, 8 or just completed a gutshot str8.

cheers,
highland

DeeJ · #6 02-23-2005, 07:57 PM

You have 10 outs, which are mostly going to be good. I would discount them to around 80% but even with 8 outs you can just about call a bet to see the river at 6.33 : 1.... if you hit a ten you may earn extra. If you didn't have the 4 ten outs I think you are better off folding.

highland · #7 02-23-2005, 08:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You may want to reread the pot-odds and draws sections of whatever poker books you own.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite as obvious as everyone's suggesting, but with 10 outs, 7 of them are likely to hold up, giving 5.7:1 odds to call and 6.3:1 from the pot. I'm not sure the implied odds overwhelm the reverse-implied odds you have against QJ, KQ, AQ or T9. I think the villain will often cold-call with 3 of those.

Do you guys really think 30% vpip is cold-calling with QT or worse? Maybe he does.

Anyway, after further analysis, I think a call is +EV here, but not a ton.

cheers,
highland

skp · #8 02-23-2005, 08:48 PM

Plus, you may have the best hand. Granted, you may be put in a spot where you fold the best hand on the river but the very act of calling on the turn may dissuade the other guy from betting the river (with a worse Ace for example). this is particularly so because he (just like all of us) has probably already seen so many guys call a river bet with Ace high.

pfkaok · #9 02-23-2005, 09:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, after further analysis, I think a call is +EV here, but not a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. i would almost certainly call here, and against most players its probably the right move... but i don' think you'd be losing a TON if you laid this down. you can't overestimate your implied odds here, b/c for a relatively tight player to coldcall you have to put QK, or AQ pretty high up on his possible hands... then if you hit your pair to give him 2 piar, and then you'll pay 2 on the river. the pot is laying enough that you're getting pot odds to call, but its at least reasonably close EV here.