|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Anyone Call This Overbet?
Had me totally confused. I don't want commentary on the flop miniraise because it often confused villain to shut down.
Bodog $12. Average ~6k. I've got my standard huge stack of 16k [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img], but unfortunately to my left is an 11k stack and a 13k stack. Blinds 200/400. Everyone else at the table is pretty short (1k-6k, mostly ~3k) and I've been a big mean bully, stealing 2-3 times an orbit and calling all ins with pot odds with absolute crap. Everyone's read on me is probably that I'm a lucky donky. My plan was to only raise a good hand on the button because I didn't need to get sheriffed by a big stack (I thought they'd be much more likely to call me outta the blinds). Anyway, I picked up A4o, it folded to me, and I raised to 1k. SB folds, BB calls. Flop: 25A, 2 diamonds (the A is of diamonds) SB bets minimum I raise minimum Turn: 4o SB bets min I call River: 2o Villain pushes Anyone call? Does he really do this with a 2 or a 3? Did he flop a set and slowplay it? My first thought was a missed flush draw. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
That is very rarely a deuce.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
That is very rarely a deuce. [/ QUOTE ] I know; I just listed the hands that beat me. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
I fold. And fold very comfortably.
I don't think it is worth putting your tourney at risk here when you are the puppeteer at your table. If avg stack was 9k+, calling becomes a very viable option, but not with 6k avg. You are still left with a big stack and can continue to bully the table. Too vulnerable with two pair on a paired board. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. And fold very comfortably. I don't think it is worth putting your tourney at risk here when you are the puppeteer at your table. If avg stack was 9k+, calling becomes a very viable option, but not with 6k avg. You are still left with a big stack and can continue to bully the table. Too vulnerable with two pair on a paired board. [/ QUOTE ] What hands do you think villain could have here that beat us? |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
His range here is any A worse than AT, busted flush draws, 22-55, or anything that he may have just called with PF to try to move you off the hand later but hit enough of the flop to play it for value after the flop.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
His range here is any A worse than AT, busted flush draws, 22-55, or anything that he may have just called with PF to try to move you off the hand later but hit enough of the flop to play it for value after the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Please explain your fold then: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 38.7500 % 36.25% 02.50% { 55-22, ATs-A2s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, ATo-A2o } Hand 2: 61.2500 % 58.75% 02.50% { Ac4s } |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] His range here is any A worse than AT, busted flush draws, 22-55, or anything that he may have just called with PF to try to move you off the hand later but hit enough of the flop to play it for value after the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Please explain your fold then: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 38.7500 % 36.25% 02.50% { 55-22, ATs-A2s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, ATo-A2o } Hand 2: 61.2500 % 58.75% 02.50% { Ac4s } [/ QUOTE ] that doesn't mean he's equally likely to do it with any of those hands. in reality, he will make that move very rarely for any particular hand, so these hand ranges aren't very useful. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
you may have slight EV in calling this all in here, but you are giving up more equity from later situations by risking your stack here.
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Anyone Call This Overbet?
how much did villain push for? i can't find his stack. regardless, i'd fold. i can't think of any time i've seen this big overbet without a very strong hand - in this case i think you see 22-55 most of the time.
|
|
|