iffy semibluff, 5/5 PLO

[ArtVandelay]

Playing 5/5 PLO last night. This is a game that I suck at; I play it primarily for entertainment and as a break from limit and big bet Hold'em, and I think my E.V. is close to 0 (although at some point I would like to get good at it). I have exactly 360 in my stack when the following hand comes up.

7 people limp pre-flop, including myself from MP with Ad7d7x2x. Yes, I know this hand really sucks, and yes, I know that if I lose every chip it's my own fault for playing this hand. However, as I said I play PLO for entertainment, and folding 90% of hands isn't fun. Furthermore, it can't be wrong by all that much, and I do think I play okay post-flop. Anyway, on to the hand.

35 in the pot, and the flop comes 9d4x2d two-tone. A loose-aggressive EP bets 25. One caller before me, I call, and one caller behind me. We take the turn 4-handed with 135 in the pot and 330 in my stack.

The turn is an offsuit ace, so now I have two pair to go with my nut flush draw. Checked to the man on my left who bets 135 (pot), and it's folded back to me (he has me covered). I've only played with this guy for a little while, and so far he's been tight-passive; I've also seen him fold to sub-pot raises, although presumably he just didn't have hands. So there's 270 in the pot and I have 330 left. I have 8 outs to the pure nuts, and against many hands I can have up to 5 additional outs (the pairing flush card and my 4 boat cards). Furthermore, it's not that hard for me to represent the nuts here, because something like 356x or even just 35 is entirely consistant with my play. So I check-raise all-in. Thoughts?

[Paul2432]

I have two thoughts:

1) If this player is tight passive, what can he have other than the nuts himself, especially since he was in position to take a free card? I think he is almost guaranteed to call, thereby making a bluff fruitless. (I suppose he could have AA)

2) Did you consider betting the turn yourself? If I was in your situation and actually had the nuts I would be too worried about giving a free card to the original bettor (who I could have a set?). I think the check-raise looks more like a bluff unless you have 9953 but then you would have probably raised the flop.

JMO.

Paul

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The guy is either bluffing and you'll win with your check-raise, or he's got you beat. The only reason to raise is if he could fold a small set or a better two-pair.

Once everybody else checked to me on the turn, I would've bet myself here. You have a decent chance of winning now if nobody has the straight, and you'll get a better feel for where you're at also. Since this person is last to act, they could easily be bluffing, or even betting to protect their 9s and 4s type two pair, figuring they've got the best hand now but want you all to fold before anybody makes a better hand.

You either have to know this player so you would know what to do now, or you have to guess. If the players tend towards loose aggressive in this game, then guess he's the same. If not, then not.

Another big factor is what he thinks of you. If he thinks you'd only raise the nuts, then a raise will get him to fold any two pair hand, and probably all sets as well. If he can't put you on the nut straight with much certainty, he's going to call with his real hands and only fold his cold bluffs.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ArtVandelay]

Both responces suggested that I bet the turn myself. The reason I didn't is that if someone raises I'm in a tough spot, because I'd need 9.8 outs to call (including the knowledge of their hand), and I could have anywhere between 6 and 13 outs once the cards are turned over. However, factoring in the semibluff part of the bet, I do agree it would have been a reasonable play.

The reason I made the raise was that I think he will fold a better two pair or just a set, although he probably would not fold AA (which is really hard to give him). Furthermore, I think he would fold weakers hands than mine which he is correct to call with at 3:1 odds, like a bad two pair plus straight draw or something. However, it is true that when he bets into 3 other players he often will have the nuts, in which case my raise is just throwing money away.

The results were that he called, I said "oops." Turned out he had 53xx where the xx included redraws to bigger straights, but those were irrelevant, and no flush cards, so I had a full 13 outs. Thus my play only cost me about $71 in E.V., not a huge mistake. And for those who care, we decided to deal it three times and he won all three.