Too pasive with my bid draw or just enough?

[aflaba]

SB is 36/17, 1.4 over 100 hands.
CO is 60/10, 0.7

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB.


What I'm thinking is, should I have raised the flop?

My main priority for doing so would be winning the pot on the turn UI.
My second, way behind priority, would be to clear outs.
Are my priorities right?

[kidcolin]

You should've raised the flop. The main reason is because there is immediate value in doing so with potentially 15 outs. That, and then the stuff you mentioned.

[Poldi]

Not a small pot, maximize your chance of winning it by raising the flop. You might try to take it down on the turn UI, you also might be able to take a free card if you want it against this opponent. Its very good to fold hands like middle or bottom pair, especially hands that have you reverse dominated. Even if SB reraises you, you have a lot of outs.

[aflaba]

I still don't know.

I was thinking... "hmm, what would TAG/LAG SB bet out with? He wouldn't bet out with a draw because it would be better _and_ more natural to ch/r that. So he has a made hand. A made hand that is strong enough to bet. That means Jx or better."

<font color="red">I was asking myself that if he has Jx, will he fold hid hand if I raise and bet the turn? I came to the answer "No". Was I right or wrong in doing so?</font> This is the main question I have in this hand. I'm really curious to what you think.


only continue reading if you want to -----&gt;

If we stand by the answer "No" for a while, then there are 3 possible reasons for me left to raise
(1) My up to 50% pot equity.
(2) Clear out outs.

The factor against raising is
(A) I want to keep players who may be drawing dead later in the pot.


*If I get it headsup after raisng the 50% equity gives me nothing, also my raise means I'll probably win less later in the hand if I hit. 3-way it gives me _up to_ +1SB.

*The clearing of outs I don't value to be very profitable. When I need to be cleargin outs I win the product of approximatly this parlay:
(final potsize) * (up to 5 outs I want to clear, 20%) * (probablility that CO or BU have me reverse dominated _and_ will fold, like 3%?) * (probability my Q or A will be good when I hit them, 90%).
So it is worth something like 20 SB * 0.2 * 0.03 * 0.9 = 0.16 SB (+- 200% or something). According to my primitive calculations clearing of outs is only important when you have _special reson to assume that your opponents have you reverse dominated_.



So the pros of raising are pretty small. I think the pro of calling is bigger. At least it is more than 1 BB cosidering that
1) I will often have an extra player putting in bets when drawing dead
2) I'll be able to raise when I hit
(3) I will probably win no less on the flop by calling)



<font color="blue">If the answer to the above question is "No", then I think calling was best. Otherwise I think raising would have been better. I'd really like a discussion about this stuff!</font>

especially:
*correct answer is "Yes" or "No"?
*value of clearing outs?