turn decision w/ JJ vs LP, QQQ on board.

dark_horse · #1 09-30-2005, 03:20 PM

villian is 64/12.7/.8.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP folds.

Turn: (5.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises

your action?

Entity · #2 09-30-2005, 03:21 PM

I'm seeing a showdown.

dark_horse · #3 09-30-2005, 03:24 PM

well yeah. (monica from friends voice)

this is the second time this has happened. interesting.
question is to 3bet or just call down.

Fianchetto · #4 09-30-2005, 03:26 PM

I go into call down mode.

Entity · #5 09-30-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
well yeah. (monica from friends voice)

this is the second time this has happened. interesting.
question is to 3bet or just call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there's much value in a 3-bet at all; that's why I'm showing down. This guy isn't uberpassive, but he certainly isn't aggressive enough for me to think we're seeing A6/TT/88/99 very often.

Rob

krimson · #6 09-30-2005, 03:29 PM

I think he would have capped any bigger PP's and a Q seems unlikely, probability wise. I think we could 3-bet this profitably, as we will likely get called down weaker PP's or A6.

edit: I missed the AF in your read. It's definitely closer with an AF of 0.8. Maybe just calling down is better.

Transference · #7 09-30-2005, 03:41 PM

What about calling the raise and donking the river?
The downside is hes probably going to showdown with a 6, (A6?) or his worse pocket pair so your losing a bet that way. The upside is we might get him to showdown an ace high with this line.

A 4bet with anything but the queen seems very unlikely so I dont think we need to fear getting pushed off the best hand after a 3bet. Unfortunately the bizarro factor is pretty significant here in that it is not a small pot.

I don't think he bluffs the river enough to make call check a great option.

Transference · #8 09-30-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
edit: I missed the AF in your read. It's definitely closer with an AF of 0.8. Maybe just calling down is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

With his inflated VPIP an AF of .8 shouldnt be interpreted as super passive.

Catt · #9 09-30-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think he would have capped any bigger PP's and a Q seems unlikely, probability wise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I started thinking about combos and guesstimated his opening range down to about 88, and discounted AA & KK a bit since he caps those at least some of the time. Against that range a 3-bet is good -- I just dismissed any Q because, like you, I felt it seemed so unlikely. But there are a bunch of Q hands that are legitimate PFRs from UTG (AQ, KQ, QJ perhaps for this guy), and, on thinking about it, I can't just dismiss Qx because "no one has quads here." Combined with his seeming passivity, I think I also prefer to avoid the 3-bet.

I think I prefer calling and donking the river (calling raise) just to be sure he doesn't check it through; I'd hate to be capped on the turn (a possibility which the 3-bet opens obviously) or fold his 99 or whatever out via the 3-bet, and I'd hate to miss another bet here.

What do you all think about the stop n go?

Edit: Cross-posted with Transference re: stop n go. Also, I didn't see the guys stats and just went with the passive reference I saw others make -- I agree that given his VPIP his AF doesn't look super passive. I think I like the stop n go even more.

dark_horse · #10 09-30-2005, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
edit: I missed the AF in your read. It's definitely closer with an AF of 0.8. Maybe just calling down is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

With his inflated VPIP an AF of .8 shouldnt be interpreted as super passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is such an important point. i've been giving super loose players too much credit in the past when their AF numbers are slightly below 1 but their VPIPs are over 60, then shocked to see what they show down.