22's Bubble - Go for the win, or ensure the money?

[otnemem]

This is probably a really straightforward answer. Wonder if anyone thinks this is the wrong play:

4 left, blinds 150-300. Hero is BB with ~1200 after posting. UTG and button each have a healthy stack. SB, on auto, is all in for <150. Button raises to 1500. Hero has 77.

Fold into the money, or risk bubbling against an "away" in order to double up and hopefully win?

[Hornacek]

Fold. 77 is marginal, and if SB wakes up with 2 overs and beats both of you, you'd be kicking yourself in the face. Once you get ITM though, you need to start being REALLY aggressive.

[aaronk56]

You would have to lose to both of them to be kicking yourself.

[kevkev60614]

One of my first shots at math, so here goes:
I assumed the big stack has two overs, used ICM and PokerStove. Then I rounded wherever I felt like it.

If you call:
40% chance of big stack winning =20% of prizes
40% chance of you winning =39% of prizes
10% chance of you coming in 2nd behind shortie =34% of prizes
10% chance of you crying yourself to sleep =0% of prizes
=.4*.2+.4*.39+.1*.34+.1*0=.27

If you fold
60% chance of biggie beating shortie =27% of prizes
40% chance of shortie winning=22% of prizes
=.6*.27+.4*.22=.25

So call. How's my math, all?

[kevkev60614]

The most interesting thing I learned here:
If you fold, the worst the big stack can do is break even. Even if he loses, he snags half your big blind. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I assumed two overs here, but I really think that's probably a worst-case scenario. Villain is much less likely to be doing this with a pair higher than 77 than he is having A4, IMO.

I can see the dilema, with the SB looking like a good chance to go out. I probably call here, however, because I think it is an excellent opportunity to put myself in position to win 1st place. The button raising 5X to me says he has a lower pocket pair or two overs, and wants to take the blinds and take out the SB. That means you are likely either on the better side of a coin toss with him or have him dominated (probably a coin toss). The SB is allin with a random hand, which, with any luck, you have dominated (probably at least one under card). That means you are going into a situation where you have a coin flip against the villain/raiser, and hopefully have the villain short stack dominated. Probably only about a 20% chance, if that, that you end up out of the money here (beat by both hands), and over a 50% chance to double. Calling is a no brainer I should think.

[jedinite]

.25 to fold versus .27 to call - I'm going to fold here 99% of the time with 77, unless i've got a specific read on the agressor.

There's value to keeping the small stack around, so in the event the away player does manage to win you can still exploit the bubble for another orbit.

I can't see passing up whats an almost guaranteed ITM for a .02 edge in ICM here.

Edit: Also, I don't think you can narrow the agressor to just overcards. I'd be curious what the ICM numbers are for a more reasonable range from the button (any pocket pair + overcards, perhaps 44+ JT+ Ax-Kx) + the random holding for the SB.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
There's value to keeping the small stack around

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf. Not when you're the 2nd shortest stack. There's value in keeping the short stack around FOR THE BIG STACKS. It's terrible for you.

[chisness]

true

[bluefeet]

very easy call IMO.