AKs on the bubble

[xxx]

Got AKs UTG with 33 people left. Top 30 places pay. I'm at 3200, avg. stack is 15K, blinds are 800-1600 with 100 ante. Big blind is has 400 left after posting.

If I fold, then post and fold, I'm almost sure to finish in the money. On the other hand, I'll be so short after that there is almost no chance to move past the nominal pay. If I go all in, I'm almost sure to get called from somewhere, so there is no chance to steal. I went all in - is this right? What do you do? Results in white below:


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I went all in, all folded to big blind who called. His QT hit the straight on the river, and I was all in the next hand on the BB. My 73o didn't improve and I finished in 31st place. </font>

[C M Burns]

If you just want to not lose too much playing tourney's, wait till the money. If you actually want to try to make any money, you need to go for the final few spots at the expense of busting out earlier. If you are satisfied playing for 3-4 hours and not even doubling your money, than ring games or sng might be better. The only time I might play just to make the money is if I got into a big tourny from a satalite and the first level in the money if a realativley big payout for me. Besides you are unlikley to get a better shot than AK, first in pf, any thime soon.

[M.B.E.]

How much of the prize pool would you get for 30th place? That's the most important piece of information, and you didn't mention it. Assuming it's 0.25% or something like that, then by all means raise all-in with AK, rather than just fold the next ten hands or whatever until you're guaranteed the tiny payment.

I pretty much agree with C M Burns. In a multi-table tournament where the bottom prize is less than 1% of the prize pool, the bubble is hardly worth worrying about if your objective is to maximize your $EV.

You may have other objectives; for example if you play recreationally, maybe you'll derive a lot of personal satisfaction by finishing in the money, or maybe your goal is to maximize the percentage of times you finish in the money in a tournament. That's fine if you decide in advance that that's your goal; just realize that you're costing yourself money that way.

[xxx]

30th paid 0.5%.

Basically, I agree with everything you said- that's why I did go all in.

[Tosh]

I'd make the same move and feel good that I got called by QT. Unlucky this time.

[jw2k]

Right now, the pot has about T3200 in it, plus the T400 that the BB will/should call with. Even if you knew QQ was out there, you're getting a good price with AK.

I think that I'll make this allin raise here. None of the other short stacks can call this, the medium stacks don't want to become a short stack, and the big stacks may well pay you off with cheese here. Hope it worked for ya.

[webiggy]

Gap Concept. You can open raise with good but not great hands, but you need a phenominal hand to call. In your situation and your stack size, you're probably right to open raise here. Personally, I like finishing in the money regardless of where, because otherwise my time playing was wasted. If you have the luxury of waiting things out, you can often just sit back and let your opponents help you to advance by beating each other. Having said that, I think you made the right call and your opponent made the mistake of calling, but unfortunately drew out on you. Bad luck.

Iggy

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you made the right call and your opponent made the mistake of calling, but unfortunately drew out on you.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think it was a mistake for the opponent to call his last 400 chips in the big blind with QT, when otherwise he'd be all-in the next hand in the small blind?

[xxx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you made the right call and your opponent made the mistake of calling, but unfortunately drew out on you.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think it was a mistake for the opponent to call his last 400 chips in the big blind with QT, when otherwise he'd be all-in the next hand in the small blind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, he has to call. It's almost 10:1 on his 400, and he has a decent hand. Actually, he might even be right to call against AA without even looking at his hole cards!