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#1
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In the theory forum someone started this thread about what percentage of the player population are long term winners.
Specifically, people are wondering why everyone's database breaks down around 60/40 losers/winners and what the significance of this number is. I don't know enough to say but I have a feeling that a lot posts in this thread demonstrate a fundamental confusion about some basic principles of statistics. 1. Is there a definitive discussion of these issues somewhere that could be linked to? 2. Do any of you statistics types want to come by and drop a little science on us? Thanks, /mc |
#2
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Monty,
That is fascinating -- I would have thought that the % of winners was much lower too. Unfortunately, I don't see any clever statisitcal reason why this should be true. Maybe it's the way it is, though I'm curious to hear other theories. gm |
#3
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It seems that everyone's db showing approx 60/40 is consistent with a true long term percentage of approx. 90/10 because of bell curves and, um, stuff.
JTR did some models along these lines in that thread. As I said, I'm totally unqualified to address this issue but I find it really interesting. /mc |
#4
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I think it has to do with the way the sample is taken.
You only observe a table for a short time. During that time the losing players have almost as good a chance of winning as the winning players. Then the session is over and the next time you play you join a new table with mostly unknown players and repeat the process. The result is that your database contains a large number of players but a small number of hands per player on average. I suspect that if you could track 1000 random players for 50,000 hands each that the winner/loser ratio would be much different. Maybe someone smarter than me can cast this in a more mathematical light. Lost Wages |
#5
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[ QUOTE ]
It seems that everyone's db showing approx 60/40 is consistent with a true long term percentage of approx. 90/10 because of bell curves and, um, stuff [/ QUOTE ] Where is this post? This doesn't seem right to me. Given the large sample size of the cumulative combined databases, the 60/40 ratio should be accurate. LostWages, I don't think your reasoning is correct here, either. I'm not positive, though. I'll PM BruzeZ -- maybe he'll chime in. gm |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It seems that everyone's db showing approx 60/40 is consistent with a true long term percentage of approx. 90/10 because of bell curves and, um, stuff [/ QUOTE ] Where is this post? [/ QUOTE ] here and the ones afterwards. /mc |
#7
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Thanks for that.
I am now convinced my previous comments were wrong. gm |
#8
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In my PT if I sort by player I've played with more than 1,000 hands I've got 72% winners. Bad game selection huh? Nope it's the other % of players that come an go and donate.
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