Tournament theory question

[worm33]

Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]
Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

he has 11 outs to win, 8 spades or 3 queens.

if you push right now he has 8k to call into a 25k pot. therefore he would be getting 3:1?

otherwise if you call and it blanks you win the pot.

interesting question. calling is definitely more risk averse, but you are getting the best odds. if you push he has close to the odds to call.

[bmxreed36]

I assume he's not calling a bet on the river if he misses?

If you push the turn, he is getting 3.13 to 1 pot odds and has a 3.66 to 1 chance of hitting one of his outs. He would be making a mistake by calling which is good for you.

Another way of looking at it:

If you push, 73% of time you will end up with t33000 and 27% of the time will bust.

.73 X 33000 + .27 X 0 = t24090

On the other hand, if you just call, your stack will be 23000 73% of the time and 8000 when he hits an out.

.73 X 23000 + .27 X 8000 = t18950

Looks like pushing has too much +EV to pass up here.
(Thanks for givin me a reason to do this math crap, I don't do it enough and need to start)

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides being +EV to push here, I also dont want to be stuck with only half of my starting stack by calling and losing. (you didnt mention what blind level we were at).

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides being +EV to push here, I also dont want to be stuck with only half of my starting stack by calling and losing. (you didnt mention what blind level we were at).

[/ QUOTE ]

one missing part of the question is what happens on the river? if he doesn't hit, does he still pay off a bet?

[worm33]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides being +EV to push here, I also dont want to be stuck with only half of my starting stack by calling and losing. (you didnt mention what blind level we were at).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the 7th hand of the tournament still at 1-2 blinds.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Me and one of my buddys we're discussing a hand I played in a tournament and this situation came up.

Starting chips of 15k blinds start 100-200. Blinds increase every 30 min and antes do not start till 5th level. WEAK field.


You have 10k left there is roughly 13k in the pot.

Opponett bets 2k with a board reading K976 with 3 spades. If the cards were flipped up and you had AK no spade, and he had KQ with q of spades, and he said if you move in i'll call. Would you push or call to see if he hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides being +EV to push here, I also dont want to be stuck with only half of my starting stack by calling and losing. (you didnt mention what blind level we were at).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the 7th hand of the tournament still at 1-2 blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I might only call here when I feel I have a huge advantage over the rest (which is rarely the case! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

[Lloyd]

This is pretty straightforward. Your example makes it clear that if the villain does not improve on the river the hero will win no additional chips. So whatever is going to be won is put into the pot on the turn.

Hero will win 73% of the time and lose 27% of the time.

If the hero just calls, 73% of the time he wins the pot and has t25,000. 27% of the time he loses and has t8,000. So the cEV of just calling is t20,410.

If the hero pushes and the villain calls, it's an all or nothing situation. I'm assuming the villain has at least as many chips as the hero. So, 73% of the time the hero wins the pot and has t33,000. 27% of the time the hero loses and busts out. The cEV of pushing is t24,090.

If the cEVs were close then I would take the route with the least risk. But in this situation they are not close and the hero should push.

[ClaytonN]

Yay Lloyd. You saved me 5 minutes. Now I can focus on eating my Chinese food.

Snarf snarf gobble munch.

[worm33]

[ QUOTE ]
This is pretty straightforward. Your example makes it clear that if the villain does not improve on the river the hero will win no additional chips. So whatever is going to be won is put into the pot on the turn.

Hero will win 73% of the time and lose 27% of the time.

If the hero just calls, 73% of the time he wins the pot and has t25,000. 27% of the time he loses and has t8,000. So the cEV of just calling is t20,410.

If the hero pushes and the villain calls, it's an all or nothing situation. I'm assuming the villain has at least as many chips as the hero. So, 73% of the time the hero wins the pot and has t33,000. 27% of the time the hero loses and busts out. The cEV of pushing is t24,090.

If the cEVs were close then I would take the route with the least risk. But in this situation they are not close and the hero should push.

[/ QUOTE ]


My thoughts: If villan bets and hero just calls he will have 8k left going into river. That is 40 big blinds. That is a lot of chips. Sure he lost more than 50% of his stack, but if you told me that I could play in a weak field live tournament and I start with 8k and rest of field starts with 15k I would feel very comofrtable in my +EV.

On the 7th hand of the tournament I am of a FIRM belief that you should avoid going busted at all costs. If this were a cash game where you could rebuy if you went busted, sure of course you push. But this is a tournament where you are done if he hits.