5-10 aq hand

[Victor]

3 limpers and the sb completes. i have aq in the bb and raise. all call.

5 for 10sb

flop is j 10 8 rainbow

checked around to button who bets. i call, utg calls, mp calls.

3 for 6.5bb

turn is Q completing rainbow.

i check, utg bets, mp folds, button calls, i call.

<font color="blue"> based on utg read he def has a 9 here. </font>

river is a 9 putting a str on the board. whats my plan?

[Michael Davis]

If what's in blue is true why are you still in the hand?

-Michael

[PassiveCaller]

definitely has a 9 in his hand... seems to make this pretty straight forward.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
If what's in blue is true why are you still in the hand?



[/ QUOTE ]

turn call getting 8.5:1 to the nuts with the possiblility of a chop.

[Michael Davis]

My bad, I forgot about the K.

-Michael

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
definitely has a 9 in his hand... seems to make this pretty straight forward.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am dense. humor me. pray tell what the correct straightforward play is here.

[J.R.]

check-raise the flop.

turn call bad as you chop with any A and, assuming you win whole pot when you catch u need to pick up at least 3 river bets to win money. But you are likely to only get 2 when you improve and win the whole pot e.g. a river overcall or having a check-raise paid off. You put in one on the turn and are probably are going to win 10.5 bets when you improve while getting 11.25 - 1 to improve [not 11.5-1 cause you "know" utg has a 9].

I think this is a pretty easy fold when you also consider you chop with any A (although I am skeptical about the certainty of your read).

Having gotten to the river, I'd bet, utg won't raise without a K and maybe button makes a silly fold.


edit: although you may have 9 chop outs, you also pay off and lose if utg or button have a K so i dunno, its close, but there is also the chacne someone has a K, so you on average also proabably have a bit less than 4 outs

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
check-raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. i thought of this during the hand and immediately after. my instinct said to cr but i couldnt think of a clear reason why. i suppose with 2 overs and double gutter i have enough equity that i want to put money in the pot. the cr would also protect my hand from random gutshots or other chop opportunities later.

[ QUOTE ]
turn call close as you chop with any A and, assuming you win whole pot when you catch u need to pick up at least 2 river bets (i.e get an overcall or have a check-raise paid off) to break even. I lean towards a fold but it is close

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i also could chop if a 9 hits so that swayed me to peel here.

[ QUOTE ]
(although I am skeptical about the certainty of your read).



[/ QUOTE ]

listen mofo, dont ever question my reads [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Having gotten to the river, I'd bet, MP won't raise without a K and maybe button makes a silly fold

[/ QUOTE ]

so checking with the intention checkraising a button bet is proly a bit of chipspewing.

[PassiveCaller]

Well.. now that I've woken up and had my morning run. I'll ditch the smart ass remark and f' ups... The turn is close since you'll need to win at least a couple of bets on the river to account for making up the odds and there's the chance of a split with any ace. If he "definitely" has a 9 I'd muck it on the turn since there's also a chance you are just drawing to a chop...

I most likely would have raised the flop to help things out. The players behind cold calling 2 in this situation would tell you a lot more.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

check-raise the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Would betting out be so bad? I might even bet-threebet if the action was right.

I think check-call is terrible with this huge draw in a multiway pot.

Guy.