Don't screw with a winning game

I'm a 2BB/100 winner at .25/.5 through 5/10, and so far at 10/20 and 15/30 a bit better than break even, but not enough hands there to truly judge.

My WTSD percentage has always been low, about 32%, but I didn't stress it because I felt I had a pretty good game. Reading a number of posts here, 32% seemed universally considered too low though.

So, I figured I'm starting to get into higher limits, 10/20 and 15/30, and I'm doing ok so far though not great (.75BB/100 in about 4k hands). So, I'm trying to see more showdowns HU with pairs and ace high. Picking boards that don't have much in the way of flush/straights, things with paired boards that people aren't likely to hit. Low boards where I hit middle pair and the villian raise preflop and likely has overcards.

The result, -350BB in about 2500 hands, the absolute worst run I've ever had. Yea, I'm seeing more showdowns, but now I'm constantly going "I know I'm beat, but I fold too easy". I call...I'm beat.

Moral of the story, true probably with any stat, don't [censored] with a winning game. If you've got a stat out of whack, recognize it, but don't work on it intentionally, it'll just screw you up.

As you move up in limits and you play HU more / multiway less, and your opponents become more aggressive your WTSD should increase naturally. There's nearly a 4% difference between my WTSD at 10/20 and 5/10. You probably shouldn't have a huge WTSD at the lower limits.

[RunDownHouse]

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Picking boards that don't have much in the way of flush/straights,

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Just to clarify, you mean boards where those draws haven't come in, right? There's plenty of opponents that will c/r any draw when headsup, etc.

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Picking boards that don't have much in the way of flush/straights,

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Just to clarify, you mean boards where those draws haven't come in, right? There's plenty of opponents that will c/r any draw when headsup, etc.

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Right. I'm trying to see showdown on boards with 2-flush, 2-straights that don't come in for exactly that reason, to pick off aggressive players betting draws.

What seems to be happening is I'm winning the small pots that mostly fail to see showdown (my continuation bet picks it up, or they check/fold). I'm losing the bigger pots that end up at showdown, ones I'd been folding before.

Win small, lose big, isn't conducive to +EV. I'm sure there's some poker tuition learning curve here in getting to showdown. My original point was that don't screw with your game to fix a stat. Rather, keep in your mind the stat is off and perhaps do more offline hand studies. Trying to adjust it during actual play seems to be a recipe for disaster and isn't good for the confidence you need to maintain during play.

[krishanleong]

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The result, -350BB in about 2500 hands, the absolute worst run I've ever had. Yea, I'm seeing more showdowns, but now I'm constantly going "I know I'm beat, but I fold too easy". I call...I'm beat.


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How can you think this has anything to do with any changes you made in your game?

Krishan

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The result, -350BB in about 2500 hands, the absolute worst run I've ever had. Yea, I'm seeing more showdowns, but now I'm constantly going "I know I'm beat, but I fold too easy". I call...I'm beat.


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How can you think this has anything to do with any changes you made in your game?

Krishan

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Undoutably not all of it, but as I review lots of the hands, I have bunches of them where I'm calling (and losing) Ace high river or middle pairs that I can see I wouldn't have called before. Trying to get to showdown has made me more of a calling station on the turn/river, spewing chips I didn't use to spew.

2500 hands isn't enough to measure much of anything. But 1 hand played badly is enough to see you play that hand badly. Trying to shift my game, I can see lots of badly played hands in the last 2500. Focusing on seeing more showdowns has screwed up the way I normally play my reads.

I'm not suggesting there weren't places I was folding winners before, but I am suggesting making changes to winning game should be taken very carefully. I'd gotten convinced reading all the posts here about 40% WTSD type stats that my game was screwed up. Somewhat I'm sure, but trying consciously to adjust it during play has screwed it up substantially more.

I think this kind of change needs to be reflective, looking at hands played, determining odds based on really figuring out hand ranges, getting the brain to accustom itself to working through the problems so it comes natural later. Trying to work on it during live play, for me anyway, isn't a good idea.