Where is mistake?

[Peter_rus]

After journey to Sardegna for two weeks without any kind of gambling included i find myself forgotten how to play poker a bit. Trying to re-adapt.

UTG is 15/12 after 157 hands. I've seen him raising twice in early positions. Am i too weak or just properly played this hand?


Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: PeterRus is UTG+2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">PeterRus 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, PeterRus calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

[bugstud]

I think the line is solid. you're not going to get any extra value from AQ/AJ/TT/99 and probably extract less, AcQc/AcKc and KcQc you might get some extra action and AA/QQ/JJ will give you more than you want.

[fnord_too]

I think you need to find a raise on the turn or the river, but maybe not in that game, which I have not played in. His turn bet is either to not give you a free card or hoping you raise so he can three bet. I think I like raising the river since he might be able to muck a hand like AQ on the turn if you raise, but will still three bet you with QQ/JJ and maybe some semi-bluffing hands or even AQ no flush draw, so a turn three bet puts you in a tough spot.

[sfer]

I think it's fine.

[Turning Stone Pro]

I like it.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the line is solid. you're not going to get any extra value from AQ/AJ/TT/99 and probably extract less, AcQc/AcKc and KcQc you might get some extra action and AA/QQ/JJ will give you more than you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think any hand he plays can fold to a river raise getting almost 11:1? I was thinking they could at first (that is the weaker holdings like 99/TT/AJ could get away) but I am not so sure now. If they can't I am starting to like raising the river again since you are ahead of villains range here I think.
AA - 6 ways
KK - 1 way
QQ - 3 ways
JJ - 3 ways
AQ - 12 ways
KQ - 6 ways
88? - 3 ways

hands I'm less comfortable putting in his range:
TT - 6 ways
99 - 6 ways
AK - 8 ways

I don't think many people will be bluff three betting here, so I don't see getting three bet by anything less than JJ. If those assumptions are reasonable, then 15 times you lose one more BB and win one more BB 18+ times (depending on how often he has an underpair and will pay off since some draws missed and the pot is huge). I guess it depends on how often he plays hands other than AA/KK/QQ/JJ/88 this way and how often he can fold to a river raise with the pot that big AK (possibly with a flush draw) missing.

(Of course I haven't played limit in 6 months, so my already underdeveloped game is pretty rusty).

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
you are ahead of villains range here I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true. Villain has 12 PFR and capped pre flop. This board should set off warning bells because most capping hands have us beat or tied:

Board: Qd Jc 5c 8s
equity (%)
63 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
37 { KK }

If we put AQs, TT in his capping range, we are a 51% favorite on the turn. Not enough of a favorite to raise. A 15/12 player won't usually cap AQs or TT, for that matter. Hell, he might not cap AKo(in that case we're in trouble).

On the river, a raise is unthinkable. Call and pray that we are tied with the other KK or beating an overplayed AQs or TT.

[PokerBob]

wow. initially i feel that this is way too tight, but given that board and villain's stats, I can only see one hand that he plays this way that you beat: AQs. I think I like it.

[stoxtrader]

I probably could not find one myself, but I don't think a turn fold is unreasonable.

[jediael]

edit
nvm, well played