Card counting question

[Theodore Donald Kiravatsos]

Just making sure I understand the theoretical part of deviations from basic strategy when counting cards, specifically:

(and my background is using Snyder's Red Seven count)

If the running count indicates that I stand on a total of 16 vs Dealer T, that means I stand on T only, that is, I continue to hit my hand vs 7-9, and of course, A. Correct?

The reason for this is that a deck rich in T's makes it not only more likely than usual that I will bust, but it is also true that the dealer is more likely than usual to have a T for a hole card. And that means that the times I do improve my 16, it will most often be to no avail, as most of the times I fill to 17,18,19, I'll most often end up losing to a 20 anyway. Conversely, the reason I still continue to hit against dealer 7, for example, even though the dealer has a better chance of busting with a 7 showing instead of a T, I will win more often on those occasions when I DO improve my hard 16. Correct?

Thanks for any comments...

[bisser]

Yes, you are right on. This is exactly how I explain it intuitively to myself. Of course, our intuition would not be able to give us the exact indexes, these come from the computers.

[cardcounter0]

Your reasoning is correct. There are higher counts which it would be better to stand on 16 vs 7, for example.

However, the rarity at which these extreme high counts occur, and the small difference between hitting and standing, makes knowing these deviations virtually worthless.

Know 16 vs T (the most profitable deviation you can make).
and then 16 vs 9, 15 vs T, 15 vs 9, 16 vs A, and 15 vs A.

If you are using red seven, then 14 vs T can also come into play.

And if the game allows surrender, then never stand on 16 or 15 vs T -- surrender instead.

[CORed]

There are indexes for 16 vs. 9-7, but they are higher than for 16 vs. 10, so you wouldn't use any but 16 vs. 9 very often. The Basic strategy EV's for hit and stand for 16 vs. 10 are very close. For most balnced counts (e.g. Hi-Lo), the index for 16 vs. 10 is 0. In general, for 16 vs. 7-10, the difference in EV between hitting and standing is greater with the smaller cards. This is primarily because your chance of beating the dealer when you don't bust goes down with the bigger dealer upcards.