I didn't know what to do with this one, 88 vs a preflop 3-betting TAG

[brazilio]

Opponent is a TAN after 100 hands, VP$IP of 14, pfr of 7, pfa of 1.29, but pfr/pfa aren't much in the way of reliable after only 100.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...



Did I just chicken out on this one? AK will pay me off big f I raise any street and they certainly won't think they're behind, and QQ/JJ are going to check the turn or river, and both AK/KK/AA are going to raise my river bet. I'm check/folding if any A or K shows up on either the turn or river, and I was leaning towards a bet/call on the river.

Don't discusss preflop play, please.

[JoshuaD]

Check-raise the flop, and take it from there, I think. This one is kinda wierd.

You want to maximize vs AK and AQ, and you want to find out about AA and KK as early as possible. I don't think you're gonna be able to keep JJ or QQ around on this flop, just play it fast and see what develops.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
both AK/KK/AA are going to raise my river bet.

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They won't check the river in the first place.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm check/folding if any A or K shows up on either the turn or river

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Terrible!

[ QUOTE ]
and I was leaning towards a bet/call on the river.

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Correct.

[The Dude]

Check raise the flop. The next time he raises you, reraise him. You put in WAY too few bets with this hand.

[Lmn55d]

checkraise the flop. Lets put him on JJ-AA, AK, possibly AQ. You are ahead of JJ-QQ, AK, and AQ (33 combos) and behind 6 combos. If he doesn't 3bet AQ you are ahead of 21 combos and behind 6. Yes, if you checkraise the flop he'll drop JJ-QQ probably, but you can't risk him checking through on the turn with those anyway and the other dude is in and will probably pay you off. If he 3bets the flop it gets a little tougher, but with if the other guy stays in you should at least cap it b/c he's gonna do this with AK which is 30% more likely than KK/AA.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm check/folding if any A or K shows up on either the turn or river

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible!

[/ QUOTE ]
To elaborate:

Combos:
AA: 3
AK: 9
AQ: 12 -&gt; 10 (discounted)
KK: 3
QQ: 6
JJ: 6
TT: 6 -&gt; 4 (discounted)

Ahead: 37
Behind: 6

I think I'm call the flop and raise the turn (hoping he'll bet his lower pockets) to get an extra BB from QQ/JJ/TT. Since he'll hold those PP's way more often than AA or KK I think we need to focus getting paid the most of these. Add to that raising the turn will good against AK too, but if 3-betted we need to call down. This is a WA/WB situation, but you're WA too often for just calling down.

If a K falls on the turn that changes to:
Ahead: 28
Behind: 10
To fold would be really bad. A TAG might bet/fold a QQ/JJ/TT and will probably keep fire with AQ. You need to win 20% of the time to call down profitable. If he bets the turn with the pockets half the time (low estimation IMO) you're still ahead more than 50% of the time.

If an A falls on the turn that changes to:
Ahead: 18
Behind: 19
If he bets QQ/JJ/TT half of the time you'll be ahead ~33% of the time. Calling down would definately be ok IMO.

And what would be really terrible is folding for 1 BB if a A or K falls on the river. Your river odds will be great!

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
The next time he raises you, reraise him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you ever wanna do that?

EDIT: well, thinking about it it's nice.

[Lmn55d]

because if he 3bets you his likely range is AK, KK, AA and possibly AQ and you are ahead 9-12 combos depending if he'll play AQ this way and behind 6. So you are between 1.5:1 and 2:1 to be ahead. If the other guy is still in I think its an easy cap. If you're behind, he'll raise your turn bet, but he'll probably also raise it with AK, so its not that bad. At that point you should call down.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
he'll raise your turn bet, but he'll probably also raise it with AK

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This is mainly why I like capping the flop.

[Lmn55d]

I thought you disagreed with The Dude that capping the flop was correct?