Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs

[Artsemis]

It's called the 2/4 rule and Ive never seen it mentioned on these boards. Then again i didn't search either so Im sure it's slipped past me.

To the point... let's say you have flopped a flush draw, meaning you have 9 outs remaining in the deck. Multiply your outs by 4 to get you approximate odds for the turn and river combined; or by 2 to get your approximate odds for the river alone.

Turn/River: 9 x 4 = 36%
River Card: 9 x 2 = 18%

Someone that knows the exact odds will see that this isn't far off at all, actually about a percent. The only flaw in this method is when you get up to many (15+) outs, this method will slightly underestimate your percentage but if you have that many outs you will know what to do [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[A_C_Slater]

Yes, I know of that one.

That is the ghetto way to do it. Plus, you're left with percentages, which is no good. It's better to know if you're getting 8 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc.

Here's a better, more precise way.

On the flop take your outs (we'll use a flush draw with one overcard as an example) and subtract them from the 47 unseen cards remaining (you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop (52-5=47)


So you have 12 outs in this example. 47-12 = 35

So there are 35 cards that won't help your hand on the next card and 12 that will, so 35/12 = 2.9 or about 3 to 1 to call.


On the turn you do the same calculations except you now subtract your outs from the 46 unseen cards.

These are of course, the odds of hitting your card on the NEXT street. But to decide your odds of completing by the river from the flop just take the 3 to 1 and divide by 2 and you will hit your flush or overcard 1.5 to 1 on the next two cards to come.

[A_C_Slater]

Here's another way to get exact percentages using the Ghetto method. Take the flush draw on the flop 4x9= 36%

For every number of outs over 8 take that number and subtract it from the number of total outs 9-8= 1 36%-1 = 35% and you get the exact number.

Here it is for 15 outs. 15 x 4= 60%

15-8 = 7 60% -7 = 53%

Your 15 outs are 53% favorite.

now this i really like, it's good to know you can get exact percentages this way, thanks!

I agree. This was the easiest method in the whole thread.

[Nomad84]

I don't like using percentages. They aren't as practical as X:1 format to me. For the poster that mentioned percentages being better for equity, I prefer to think that if my odds are better than 2:1 and I have at least 2 people coming along with me, I have an equity edge. If my odds are better than 3:1 and there are more than 3 people, I have an edge. I can see how percentages would be easier for this for some people, but not me. It also makes it much easier when evaluating calls. If my drawing odds are 4:1 against, I just need to make sure there are at least 4 bets in the pot to justify a call. Much easier (IMO) than trying to figure out if my call will be equal to more or less than 20% of the total pot if I call.

For any number of outs from about 5 to 9, take 13 minus the number of outs. It's an approximation that works fairly well. Not a lot better than just memorizing the odds, but it helped me when I was new, so maybe it will help others too.

Outs.....Approx. Odds......Precise Odds (River)
5................8:1...............8.2:1
6................7:1...............6.7:1
7................6:1...............5.6:1
8................5:1...............4.8:1
9................4:1...............4.1:1

i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

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I agree.

But you will be able to do it the other way just as fast and easily if you just bother to apply yourself. Practice and time.

[csuf_gambler]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know of that one.

That is the ghetto way to do it. Plus, you're left with percentages, which is no good. It's better to know if you're getting 8 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc.

Here's a better, more precise way.

On the flop take your outs (we'll use a flush draw with one overcard as an example) and subtract them from the 47 unseen cards remaining (you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop (52-5=47)


So you have 12 outs in this example. 47-12 = 35

So there are 35 cards that won't help your hand on the next card and 12 that will, so 35/12 = 2.9 or about 3 to 1 to call.


On the turn you do the same calculations except you now subtract your outs from the 46 unseen cards.

These are of course, the odds of hitting your card on the NEXT street. But to decide your odds of completing by the river from the flop just take the 3 to 1 and divide by 2 and you will hit your flush or overcard 1.5 to 1 on the next two cards to come.

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isn't this the lee jones way? i have always found the lee jones way to be faster and more effective then the SSHE method

[InsaniT]

To convert percentages to odds, take the percentage to make your hand (for flush draw, ~18% on the next card using the "ghetto" method) and subtract that from 100% (100-18=82). Your odds to make it on the next card are 82:18, or about 4:1. That's not far off from the true number, 4.11:1.

InsaniT