struggling to move to a higher limit

[ryanj247]

this is hypothetically speaking...i'm thinking through what might potentially happen based on my very limited experiences to try to come up with a gameplan in advance if it does:

suppose i am a consistent winning player over 100K+ hands at $3/6. starting with a bankroll of $1800, i am able to build that roll to $3000. now i am sufficiently bankrolled for $5/10, and decide to move up.

now suppose i hit a bad run initially. if i ran -1.5BB/100 over 8000 hands, i would drop $1200. at that point, it would be prudent to drop back down to $3/6.

once i built my roll back up to $3000, i could give $5/10 another shot. another bad run, and 8000 hands later i'd have to drop back down to 3/6.

even after four cycles like this, i would have played only 32K hands at $5/10. there are two problems i see with this:

1) 32K is not really enough to come to a conclusion that i am a losing player in a game (or is it?)

2) 32K hands may not be enough to learn the adjustments i need to make to become a winning player in a new game (or is it?)


if i'm established as a winning player at one level, but lose repeateadly at the next level up, am i best to indefinitely continue the cycle of moving up until half my bankroll is gone and then dropping back? or should i just fund the bankroll with enough to withstand losing at the higher level for 100K hands and hope i can figure out how to beat it in that time?

[Paxosmotic]

Two things wrong with your situation.

1) It took you 100k hands to advance from $1,800 to $3,000. That means you are a .2bb/100 player, only marginally better than break even. You are not a winning player and need to reexamine your game before moving up.

2) The first time you move up it might be fear/anxiety causing you to play badly at your new level. The second time, it might be variance. But the third time you move up and get it handed to you, it's your fault. If you move up and get slaughtered every time, stay at the lower level and find the holes in your game. Moving up is just playing Robin Hood at that point. You're taking from 3/6 to give to 5/10.

[ryanj247]

thanks for the reply.

[ QUOTE ]
Two things wrong with your situation.

1) It took you 100k hands to advance from $1,800 to $3,000. That means you are a .2bb/100 player, only marginally better than break even. You are not a winning player and need to reexamine your game before moving up.


[/ QUOTE ]

let me clarify:

in this hypothetical example, let's assume we've been beating the $3/6 game for 1.5BB/100+ over 100K hands. but we've been cashing out our winnings, so we're starting with $1800.

obviously it should take only 13,000 hands or so to build up our bankroll to the $3000 required for $5/10.

[ QUOTE ]
2) The first time you move up it might be fear/anxiety causing you to play badly at your new level. The second time, it might be variance. But the third time you move up and get it handed to you, it's your fault.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm. interesting. i was under the impression that it was entirely possible for a winning player to hit stretches of 20K-50K hands where they lose? is it really correct to make a judgement after only, say, 24K hands?

certainly, as you suggest, you can't draw any real conclusions after 8K. or even 16K. but you think three successive 8K losing runs are solid evidence that you aren't a winning player in the new game?

not that i disagree with you. just pressing the issue to point out the source of my doubt.


[ QUOTE ]
If you move up and get slaughtered every time, stay at the lower level and find the holes in your game. Moving up is just playing Robin Hood at that point. You're taking from 3/6 to give to 5/10.

[/ QUOTE ]

so in your experience, it's not necessary to PLAY a lot of $5/10 (for example) to learn the adjustments necessary to BEAT $5/10?

i'd be very interested to hear the approach players have taken to improve after several failed attempts to move up, despite a solid, consistent winrate at the lower level. how were you able to identify and work on the weaknesses in your game when they weren't being exploited in the game you were currently beating?

[K C]

The first thing I'd suggest is not to psyche yourself out too much. Players often feel intimidated when trying a higher level. There really isn't much of a difference between $3/$6 and $5/$10 and the biggest difference may be in your mind. Whenever you feel uncomfortable though, it's usually time to back off. If your stays at the higher level end up to be brief for the first few times, that sure beats getting beat up on by staying when you're not comfortable. While the difference in the levels may be fairly slight, you're still going to have to bring your "A" game. If you don't have it, don't play it.

Another thing you're going to have to pay attention to is not to be intimidated at all by the higher stakes. For example, the hand may call for a re-raise and at $5/$10 you're thinking that's thirty bucks or whatever I'm throwing in there now, maybe I should just go for $20. This is especially important if you're playing NL. You need to play your best and not be put out by the fact more of your money is going in the pot.

Another thing you may want to consider is playing the higher limit at an easier site. There is a fair bit of variation among sites where ease of competition is concerned. I know of a $100/$200 game that is quite a bit easier to beat than say a $1/$2 game on a much tougher site. Don't ever get married to the site - always remember you're a bachelor (or bachelorette as the case may be [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) and always look for the best places to play at.

Another key element is having the best tools at your disposal. I started out in live games many years ago but can't believe how lost I feel at them now without software casing out my opposition in every way conceivable. I use Poker Sherlock these days ( http://pokersherlock.com/trysherlock.html ),and you might want to check this out, but make sure you're not missing out here by having something good at your side. You're playing on a computer so you might as well take advantage of that fact [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

All in all it's not going to take too long to see if you're out of your league or not, and certainly nothing like 32k hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If you're not winning in the first few hundred actually it might be best to go back for awhile, as the phrase better safe than sorry definitely applies here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I have a friend who had worked his way up to $5K and decided it was time to try out $10/$20, and didn't know when to stop, and it only took a few days of bad cards to go broke. I think he's learned his lesson though now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, with the right amount of patience, combined with setting yourself up for success as best you can, this shouldn't be a difficult transition at all to make with a little time.

Best of luck,
KC
kingcobrapoker.com

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I recently moved up and got hit in the head hard, moved back down and got hit again, so bad that I'm play a level below where I used too. [censored] happens. It was the first time I ever got tilted after losing several big hand (I play NL mostly). It wasn't even tilt, I wasn't making bad decisions, I just felt depressed and wasn't trying as hard, almost waiting to lose again so I could tell someone about it.

You know what? After some time to cool off the only part that still stings is my pride. Sometimes getting your ass kicked is the best thing that can happen. Time to rework my game again. In the long run it doesn't matter. As long as the games are beatable and you constantly work on getting better the results will come. I didn't make many horrible mistakes, got way more than my fair share of suckouts, and I'm sure I only got outplayed on maybe 3-4 hands over 10k. Big whoop, it's poker, it's gambling.

I noticed once I started winning consistently I stopped working on improving my game as much. In hindsight I had this coming eventually, but I sure as heck wasn't due yet =p. If you get beat down just work on your game and work your way back up. The second you try to do anything else instead (like play higher to recoup losses, or just go back down and give up)

Don't worry about the games being unbeatable until you get to the higher levels. I'm sure anyone who is dilligent can eventually beat games up to at least 3rd/4th tier or so.

Worry about your game. As long as your playing within bankroll requirements and constantly work on your game the only way is up. Poker is a meritocracy.