Good players who play a lot: How long can cold streaks go on for?

[comstock]

A week? Say 40 straight hours of play? Seems inconceivable but it reminds me of that line in rounders where the guy's like, "..cold streak like the kind you read about"

I'm talking the last 50 pocket pairs not setting, missing untold open ended + flush draws (17 outs). Made hands taking true bad beats. I'm talking playing the "right hands", not trash, ala SSHE.

I actually haven't done well since reading SSHE and sticking to it, though it's surely a coincidence.

So how long in time or $ have you regulars seen go straight cold/bad?

[stoxtrader]

I think a good way to approach this question would be to learn and understand standard deviations, win-rates and confidence intervals.

[TwoShedsJackson]

2 years is the longest losing streak I've heard of. Online I can lose consistently for a week, playing decent cards etc. etc. so I just keep thinking of the Cosmic Bank Loan theory and know it should all come back.

[mikeyworm]

not to be rude but I think another important thing to learn here would be the actual number of outs you have on an open-ended straight flush draw. (assuming pairing your cards is no good) It's 6 straight cards and 9 flush cards. just remember not to double count your outs.

[bisonbison]

here you go

[shummie]

My worst slump is going on right now. I'm an occasional player, but the last 4 times I've been to the Ameristar here in St. Louis I've lost -$150, -$150, -$100, -$100 at the 3/6 game. These have been some of the crazziest-worst sessions in my life. Each session is only 2-3 hours long at most.

It's not a terrible terrible losing streak; I'm sure I've had longer ones playing online that didn't seem as bad because of the increased # of hands per hour and the smaller stakes I play there.

My MO right now is to go to Ameristar, lose $100-$150. Get scared of the place. Then play PP 1/2 for a bit, winning back most of the $100. Then go blow it again to the suck-outs at Ameristar.

Besides that fact that I haven't been to the casino as much lately, the losing sessions haven't affected my play too much. I'm just a lil scaredy-cat though.

- Jason

[zokbarjazz]

But things are looking up...

[Rudbaeck]

Mason Malmuh goes over the math of cold streaks in excruciating detail in Gambling Theory And Other Topics.

[comstock]

thank you, i'm fairly well read when it comes to poker but I haven't read that one yet. will have to check it out.

[bicyclekick]

I had one last 20k hands. Yuck.