Party 15-30 Hand

[Lestat]

UTG raised. Not a lot of hands, but (21-11-2), so far. two loosish cold callers. I called from the sb with 99.

The flop came Q63r. I checked, UTG bet, all fold to me, I check/raise, UTG calls.

Turn is an 8. I bet, he calls.

River is a K.

What should my plan be?

[JAA]

Well, I think a bet is out of the question since I don't see you getting called by a worse hand or getting a better hand to fold (even if he has JJ or TT he will probably call you down getting 9:1).

Originally I was going to say check and make a crying call getting 9:1. But the more I think about it, I am leaning toward checking and folding to a bet. He would have to have called the flop checkraise and turn bet with precisely an unimproved AJ, AT, or maybe 77 in order for you to be a winner here.

I think it is close between check/calling and check/folding. Anyone think it's not close?

- Jags

[pfkaok]

I agree that its probably pretty close between check/call, and check/fold. If you think that AT, AJ or 77 are hands that this player would raise UTG, then calling is probably correct. His play of course looks most like AK, JJ or TT, but i think he'd play those other hands that you beat in this fashion as well... if he raised them PF, and i guess he could have 99 for the split pot too

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG raised. Not a lot of hands, but (21-11-2), so far. two loosish cold callers. I called from the sb with 99.

The flop came Q63r. I checked, UTG bet, all fold to me, I check/raise, UTG calls.

Turn is an 8. I bet, he calls.

River is a K.

What should my plan be?

[/ QUOTE ]

very close in all directions imo...

1) bet: he can fold TT & JJ here.

2) check and call. he may have AJ/AT and hope you'll fold YOUR pair.

3) check and fold. his play looks precisely like AK as well b/c TT/JJ may have folded to the turn bet unless he expects a possible play like that from the Axs underpair.

personally, i dont like just giving up on a pot, as you have stated in previous posts, by not taking a shot at getting a better hand to fold. he's not buying you have AK b/c you did't 3 bet from the blinds. but a bet may say to him, "that king doesn't bother me, TT/JJ no good."

you want a better hand to fold here, not get a worse hand to call or bluff, imo so although it is close, id actually lean towards betting. ALSO, since he seems to be a decent player by his stats, you'll be playing with him fairly frequently im assuming...therefore, betting THIS river and getting called by something that beats you, allows you to value bet a LOT against him.

one downside: if he raises, you can't call.

-Barron

[Lestat]

Thanks JAA,

I was going to wait for some more responses, but maybe this won't be a popular post (it's a pretty dull hand). I agree with:

<font color="red">He would have to have called the flop checkraise and turn bet with precisely an unimproved AJ, AT, or maybe 77 in order for you to be a winner here. </font>

But isn't there something else to consider here? Although he might have AA,KK, or a pair of queens, it doesn't seem like it by the way he's played his hand so far. So while the king doesn't look to be a good card for me, it must be just as scary to him unless he has precisely AK. So I went from: What hand can I beat? To: What hand can he be betting?

I'm getting 9.5 to 1. Is it still close?

I'm not being coy. These Party players seem to bet for no other reason than I checked. They don't consider whether a bet has postive EV or not, just that I checked, so they're gonna bet. I feel that I have not been picking off these frivelous bets enough.

[JAA]

[ QUOTE ]
one downside: if he raises, you can't call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This actually factored in quite a bit in my thinking. If I were the villain, I would consider raising this river as a last ditch effort to win the pot, with the logic that I could get an 8 and maybe a Q to fold. You pretty much have to put me on a K or a stone bluff, and a lot of average players will make this fold.

Some people may disagree, but I stand firmly behind the assertion that certain people WILL fold for one more bet on the river on Party. The general consensus around here is that it is never worth trying a bluff-raise on the river, but this is wrong.

- Jags

[Lestat]

Thands DcifrTHs,

You don't mention whether a bet has any two-way value (such as getting called by a worse hand). Is this correct that you bet only as a bluff? Or do you think there's any chance of being paid off by a hand like 77?

Sometimes I bet because I'm gonna call if I check and he bets, but I'll feel I'm a worse dog calling than betting myself. In other words, he might be more inclined to check a worse hand than bet it himself, but will bet more hands that beat mine. I wasn't sure how to assess this spot though. Thanks for your help.

[Peter_rus]

Against UTG with these stats i'd check-call.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Some people may disagree, but I stand firmly behind the assertion that certain people WILL fold for one more bet on the river on Party. The general consensus around here is that it is never worth trying a bluff-raise on the river, but this is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, against certain players it's probably pretty profitable... and i've also called quite a few times after being raised on river with hands that i "know" i should fold, only to be awarded the pot, and surprised with my opponents hand.

You guys really think he'd fold a JJ or TT here, after calling the flop CR and turn bet?? If i'm villain and i deceide that you might be bluffing enough on the flop CR for me to call down with my TT, then i'm probably only folding if turn and river come A, then K, or something like that.

[Lestat]

<font color="red">His play of course looks most like AK, JJ or TT, but i think he'd play those other hands that you beat in this fashion as well.. </font>

Really? You don't think I can severely discount JJ/TT if he bets the river? Up until the river, I agree. Assuming I CAN discount JJ/TT, that leaves only AK which has me beat. Would that change things?