Folding AA on river?

FreakDaddy · #1 10-12-2005, 06:01 PM

Villian is really bad. He's hit some big suckouts. He will call down with any top pair and weak kicker. I put him on 9's, do I trust my read or call? Any comments on other streets appreciated. I thought of lots of different ways to play the turn, I put Villian on K9, A9, A4 or 89. Those seem the most probable for this guy.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($35.90)
UTG+2 ($17.60)
Hero ($23.55)
MP2 ($29.10)
MP3 ($39.95)
CO ($187.68)
Button ($39.20)
SB ($26.15)
BB ($82.55)
UTG ($19.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $1.25, 3 folds, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($3.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3, BB calls $3.

Turn: ($12.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP3 calls $8, BB folds.

River: ($28.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $10, Hero??

#2 10-12-2005, 06:10 PM

You get 3.8 : 1 on your money, so your hand has to be good 27% of the times to make this call profitable (if i do the math correctly, it's late). How many times does this villain have 55, 66, 77, 88, TT, JJ, KQs, AK? I would make the call, expecting my hand to be good enough times to make it profitable.

Morrek · #3 10-12-2005, 06:12 PM

This guy could have anything, especially since you checked to him on the river. I call.

swolfe · #4 10-12-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This guy could have anything, especially since you checked to him on the river. I call.

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FreakDaddy · #5 10-12-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This guy could have anything, especially since you checked to him on the river. I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all. What hands is he calling a ~ full size flop bet and 2/3 turn bet in a raised pot? The only hands he has that I'm beating are TT, JJ, QQ, or perhaps AK BUT I think he's raising any pair(on the flop) and likely I'm getting him all in on the flop, so we can pretty safely elimate any big pairs, so that leaves AK. Any other reasonable hand I'm behind.

FreakDaddy · #6 10-12-2005, 07:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This guy could have anything, especially since you checked to him on the river. I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

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What hands am I beating?

FreakDaddy · #7 10-12-2005, 10:20 PM

River: ($28.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Final Pot: $48.85

Hero has Ad As (two pair, aces and nines).
MP3 has 9c Jc (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: MP3 wins $48.85.

mudbuddha · #8 10-12-2005, 10:26 PM

regardless of what results you still have to call 10$ for that

FreakDaddy · #9 10-12-2005, 10:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
regardless of what results you still have to call 10$ for that

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Here's the thing that's bothering me about this hand. On the flop there are no draws what so ever. So he likely has a 9, somethign like K9 or A9, OR he's really donking it up with something like A4s, which is a possibility (but small). Then he calls a 2/3 size pot bet in the turn. So perhaps he has a 9 with a re-draw or Ac4c. Out of all the lofical hands that he may have I'm only beating two as I set it and I'm losing to many more while getting ~4:1 on my money. I'm really not entirely convinced that it's a clear cut call. All the logic of the hand says fold, which is why I checked the river after a bit of thought. I made of course a crying calling, but I don't really think it was correct. Although everyone is so far saying it is.

Simplistic · #10 10-12-2005, 10:36 PM

don't be results orientated. you played it fine. you either check/call or bet/fold