PLO8 hand 3

gergery · #1 06-21-2005, 11:03 AM

PLO8 $200 Party table

You have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
And raise from MP. You have done this on 4 of the last 6 hands and only showed down once, with a good hand.

LP calls you. There is $15 in the pot, and you both have $210 left

Flop comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet the pot, LP calls, there is $45 in the pot.
Turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

You bet the pot, LP reraises the pot. It’s $135 to call, pot is $225 and he has $60 left.

Your data on him says: VPIP 30, W$SD 65, winner at +14BB/100 over 225 hands.
You have caught him bluffing on occasion, but he has busted a number of people you’ve seen who didn’t believe him.

What is your action?
If you said fold, how high must your flush be to call? (ie. change 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to ?)
If your cards were A2TT no spades, would you call his turn bet?

-g

Wintermute · #2 06-21-2005, 11:14 AM

About all three of these hands--they are all impossible to fold. This one, I'm living with the possibility that I may get scooped here, whether I have 7-high flush or set of 10s on the turn. Also, the stats you've got on the other player are meaningless after just 225 hands--I'm not afraid to make the call on this one just because this guy has nice results over a *tiny* sample size.
Also, we don't know how many total players are at the table. (For that reason, I'd suggest that you just post the full HH--it's easier to read anyway, and helps you avoid mistakes in transcribing the hand.) If this is a full ring, the decision is a little more iffy, but if it's somewhat short, no doubt it's a call.

JohnnyPhoenix · #3 06-21-2005, 11:17 AM

First, you don't have the nut flush just the nut low draw.
Secondly, LP might have an A2 and maybe a high nut flush. I think I would check after the flop and see what LP would do. If he bet the pot I would off fold and wait for a better situation. It is obvious that it is going to be a split pot.

Johnny

gergery · #4 06-21-2005, 11:38 AM

Sorry, this was at a full-table. After the bet and call it was head to head with the other 8 folding.

I tried posting using the converter but it keeps messing up. I was attempting to keep it simple but I guess that didn’t work, sorry.

Thanks for the input.

JoshuaMayes · #5 06-21-2005, 12:11 PM

This is a good spot for villain to bluff. I know I would be starting to think about pushing back at you if you had raised 6 out of 4 hands. If I had the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I would bluff at you here most of the time. But I would play Ax [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] the same way. You are not getting a very good price to pick off a bluff here, but you do have the low draw to somewhat protect you. All in all, I would probably fold, because if I am behind I have outs to half the pot at most, and very likely my outs are only to one quarter of the pot.

In my view, calling is attempting to pick off a bluff, so, for me, it wouldn't matter whether I had Kx [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 7x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] -- villain is either bluffing or he isn't. Villain would be crazy to make this play without the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so if one of his other cards is a spade, I am drawing dead for high and possibly to a split for low. I like waiting for a better spot.

If I had A2TT, I would call without hesitiation.

cjs · #6 06-21-2005, 01:04 PM

Greg, I think you have to know what you will do on the turn before you bet. If you will fold to a reraise I think you have to check the turn and call his bet. See if you make your low on the river and reeaval.

If you will call the raise on the turn, bet and call the raise and reeval the river.

I think you made a mistake betting the turn. I want to see the river / a showdown and would have tried to get there cheaper.

gergery · #7 06-22-2005, 03:56 PM

I was villain in this hand.

I had 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I was speculating since I had a good idea what his hand was and we got heads up, with the plan to be aggressive with any A,2,7, or spade. Hero folded so we don't know what he had. Mainly, I was curious what my fold equity would be if he'd had spades, and by the responses I think I had some but not much. I actually put him on A2xx with 1 high spade here.

Given that I was fairly sure he had A2 or possibly AA, he had been playing pretty loose, I had a 9-hi flush and 3 spades in hand, I felt good about the turn push. It needs to work around 70% of the time, but he can only really call and have me in trouble with a higher flush, which would be dealt to him something like 8% of the time. So with the low missing on the turn I figured his folding was very likely.

But I'm willing to believe Joshua's assessment that I'm insane [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Comments on my play?

TGoldman · #8 06-22-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I had 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's true, I think you have bigger problems than how you played your hand. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

JoshuaMayes · #9 06-22-2005, 04:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was villain in this hand.

I had 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I was speculating since I had a good idea what his hand was and we got heads up, with the plan to be aggressive with any A,2,7, or spade. Hero folded so we don't know what he had. Mainly, I was curious what my fold equity would be if he'd had spades, and by the responses I think I had some but not much. I actually put him on A2xx with 1 high spade here.

Given that I was fairly sure he had A2 or possibly AA, he had been playing pretty loose, I had a 9-hi flush and 3 spades in hand, I felt good about the turn push. It needs to work around 70% of the time, but he can only really call and have me in trouble with a higher flush, which would be dealt to him something like 8% of the time. So with the low missing on the turn I figured his folding was very likely.

But I'm willing to believe Joshua's assessment that I'm insane [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Comments on my play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your play is pretty bold, as I would think that he would too often hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] when he in fact has a better flush than you. Your play is only a bluff if you are getting hero to fold a better flush than yours. If he does not hold a better flush than you, your raise is for value and to prevent him from drawing out, so you don't really need any fold equity to make the play correct. You would definitely push me off anything except for a set + a low draw or a nut flush, so whenever I hold a K-T high flush, you would bluff me out, even if I had a nut low draw to go with it. You would also protect your hand most of the time it was good, but most of the time your hand is good, hero probably does not lead at the turn (at least I wouldn't most of the time).
In my view, you should have folded to his preflop raise or his flop bet.
P.S. If you held the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], what was the turn card?

gergery · #10 06-22-2005, 05:47 PM

Hmm, that’s the problem with trying to do these from memory.
The flop must have been 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the turn was the T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
to go with my 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I made this play for a few reasons:
1) My opponent was a fairly good player who could fold, but was being very aggressive.
2) The chances he has a better flush than me are very low, less than 10%. I have 3 spades and 3 are on the board, leaving only 7 possible.
3) if he is ahead, he might fold a better flush. This was what I was most uncertain about. If he has low plus set then I’m close to even money
4) I have some outs if I’m beat: a higher flush might have no good low, I might hit my straightflush, and could counterfeit him if he has a low.
5) I was getting reasonable odds – I win $90 if he folds, but lose $200 if I’m beat, and I don’t think he has me beat anywhere close to 200/290ths of the time.
6) I didn’t think I could raise the flop as I felt he would call and I was certainly behind. I also thought he would bet hard if he made his low and I was at best tied then.
7) I didn’t think I could call the turn, because if a low hit he would probably bet, and if it missed he would probably slowdown. If the board paired and he bet big, I could not call.

Basically, I’m posting this because I think I made a good play, but am doubtful (and new to PLO8) enough that I want other opinions. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

-g