A6o on the Bubble - push or fold?

[Shorty35]

Looking for leaks. Too often, I am making the wrong decision in spots like this.

Should I now be playing only to get itm? or is the higher $EV move to go for it?


***** Hand History for Game 3057777284 *****
400/800 Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17531051) - Fri Nov 18 22:51:17 EST 2005
Table Table 68187 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TallThinMan (1577)
Seat 8: pagaille (6115)
Seat 9: z32fanatic4 (1444)
Seat 10: DEADDUCKYY (864)
pagaille posts small blind (200)
z32fanatic4 posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TallThinMan [ Ad, 6s ]
DEADDUCKYY folds.
TallThinMan ?

[Freudian]

I let this go since BB is about to hit the 2xBB stack. And pushing into such a big stack with weak aces make me uncomfortable. You are in much less urgency than the other two smaller stacks here.

[splashpot]

I think this is a clear push. Although not as bad as the others, your stack is hurting pretty bad too. The short guy doubles up and you're in trouble.

[bennies]

It's a fold. Take AT instead and it would be a tough decision in which a read on bigstack would help a lot.

[splashpot]

If you put SNGPT on the maniac range for both SB and BB, it's a marginal push. Maniac is 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Personally, I think both their ranges are going to be tighter than that. So I push this unless I've read them to be wild.

[Freudian]

SNGPT doesn't take following hands into account. And what happens the next hand is very relevant to our hero.

[splashpot]

Even so. You're in lots of trouble if everyone sticks around for one more orbit. And that's completely possible. Stealing the blinds here adds a HUGE chunk to your stack. If anything, you probably have more fold equity because of shortie.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put SNGPT on the maniac range for both SB and BB, it's a marginal push. Maniac is 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Personally, I think both their ranges are going to be tighter than that. So I push this unless I've read them to be wild.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

Freudian said the next hand is important, this is true, however you can make it part of your SNGPT calculation.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think the big stack is calling hands worse than that range? Like what? K9, JT? I can't see him calling with hands like that. My stack is big enough to do some significant damage to his lead.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think SB might be looser than this (because of his bigstack). For BB I think this range is about right.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think the big stack is calling hands worse than that range? Like what? K9, JT? I can't see him calling with hands like that. My stack is big enough to do some significant damage to his lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure but I feel I see it pretty often. He would pay 1377 to win 2177 - these are decent odds for K8o, 87s, Q5s etc. Also, some bigstacks like play table sherif.