$20 PS NL Tourney - that hand that hurts

[Capone1]

Here's the hand that sent me out 16 places out of the money right before. Question is should i pushed all in preflop for the chance that he wouldve folded.
PokerStars Game #964123032: Tournament #3919686, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2004/12/16 - 01:50:16 (ET)
Table '3919686 59' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: sttaf (20365 in chips)
Seat 2: ACES P.I.M.P (10190 in chips)
Seat 3: Yeti Hunter (12466 in chips)
Seat 4: Corgold (29590 in chips)
Seat 5: BonoVox33 (3573 in chips)
Seat 6: DaKidCapone (10107 in chips)
Seat 7: JohanBodin (12840 in chips)
Seat 8: fatboyss (17974 in chips)
Seat 9: lvstraddle (30924 in chips)
sttaf: posts the ante 50
ACES P.I.M.P: posts the ante 50
Yeti Hunter: posts the ante 50
Corgold: posts the ante 50
BonoVox33: posts the ante 50
DaKidCapone: posts the ante 50
JohanBodin: posts the ante 50
fatboyss: posts the ante 50
lvstraddle: posts the ante 50
sttaf: posts small blind 300
ACES P.I.M.P: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaKidCapone [Ad Ac]
Yeti Hunter: folds
Corgold: raises 600 to 1200
BonoVox33: folds
DaKidCapone: calls 1200
JohanBodin: folds
fatboyss: folds
lvstraddle: folds
sttaf: folds
ACES P.I.M.P: folds
*** FLOP *** [3s 2c 4s]
Corgold: bets 1200
DaKidCapone: raises 7657 to 8857 and is all-in
Corgold: calls 7657
*** TURN *** [3s 2c 4s] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [3s 2c 4s 2s] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Corgold: shows [As 9s] (a flush, Ace high)
DaKidCapone: shows [Ad Ac] (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
Corgold collected 21464 from pot

[Myst]

Bad beat. It happens.

[Bluffstar]

I think you did the right thing, the only thing you really could fear on the flop was if he was holding 22, 33, 44 or A5 - I would guess he would not have minimum raised preflop, and betted half the pot on the flop with a hand like that. I would suspect him of either having a higher pair 55-KK, or having the flush draw.
You would be nearly 60 pct. or more favourite to any of those.

If you had gone all-in preflop he wouldn't have been calling with a hand and stack like that, he would probably fold, and that way you would not get enough value for your AA. And given your stack-sizes I don't think you could have raised less, and again it would be very hard to fold when the turn-spade came.

Of course you might have seen that you probably would have up 40 pct. risk of leaving the tourney, but thats the game.

You did the right thing, but were unlucky this time, in the long run it will pay off for you.

[Capone1]

I think your right. I came back to the table and asked him if he would have folded if i went all in preflop and he said "definitely." Oh well.

[schwza]

i would have pushed, but not because i wanted a fold - i'd have done it for value. if the villain has something like AK or 99, do you think he'll call a push when the flop comes Q T 3? he might call pre-flop though.

and if you pick up the pot, that's not too bad. there was T2100 in the pot, and you had around 10k. winning 20% of your stack without risking a flop is not a bad result, especially right near the bubble.

[david050173]

Don't push. Reraise. You don't want him folding but you want to make him pay while is way behind. Imagine the flop is something like Q72. He is going to fold to any bet and escape cheaply.

On the flop unless you had AA, he had 3 outs (either the A or 9) in addition to the flush draw. Add in 3 more for the straight and it is reasonable to think that calling is a coinflip situation at worst. He may feel he is way a head if you are on a flush draw (KJ or KQ).

You could have also just called his bet and push into a non club turn but I don't like that in that it lets him off cheaply.