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  #1  
Old 01-19-2005, 07:11 PM
Yobz Yobz is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bonus whoring Party/InterPoker
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Default Long term money-making bluff?

Is this bluff worth it?

Both opps are average, both see river 30-35% of time they see flop.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 (poster) folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks.

River: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

Final Pot: 7.25 BB
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  #2  
Old 01-19-2005, 07:28 PM
djr djr is offline
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Default Re: Long term money-making bluff?

it's marginal and highly player dependent. Given you're the only post flop aggressor, it's worth taking a stab at it given the size of the pot.
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  #3  
Old 01-19-2005, 08:23 PM
JoshuaD JoshuaD is offline
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Location: NJ, USA
Posts: 341
Default Re: Long term money-making bluff?

If you were gonna bluff the river if you missed, why not semi-bluff the turn?

That said, I don't like your river bluff here. You're up against 2 opponents and I think one of them is going to look you up here too often to make this profitable.
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  #4  
Old 01-19-2005, 08:56 PM
Carmine Carmine is offline
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Default Re: Long term money-making bluff?

[ QUOTE ]
If you were gonna bluff the river if you missed, why not semi-bluff the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn he is still drawing to his oesd and he doesn't have enough callers to make betting out correct. On the river he missed his draw but because of the way he played the hand another opportunity arose. I actually think if he had bet the flop and turn there is more of a chance of getting called on the river.
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  #5  
Old 01-19-2005, 08:48 PM
Carmine Carmine is offline
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Default Re: Long term money-making bluff?

You bet out on the flop with TP. You check the turn when the scare K falls. You bet the river with trips. I think this play will make you money more often than not against the "right opponents".

I also think to be a winning player plays like this are not an option but a necessity. I know lady luck has a big say in weather I win or lose, but I'm not leaving it solely up to her.
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