analysis of desperation moves with 32o and T7o

[syka16]

Suppose blinds just increase in a 6-handed SNG to 200/100 and you start off in the SB with T900, what should you do on this orbit? The following is analysis of steals with two hands (23o & T7o).

Steal value is simply (1-%called) * 300.

Called value is ((equity against callers range * pot) - 900) * %called.

Tvalue is steal value + called value.

Pot value is averaged since a call could come different positions.



T900 : Blinds 200/100 : callers range (AA-22, AK-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo)

From SB
called 27.15%
Steal value: T219
Call value: -T89 (w/23o) | -T55 (w/T7o)
T value: T130 (w/23o) | T164 (wT7o)

From Button
Called 54.3%
Steal value: T163
Call value: -T184 | -T120
Tvalue: -T21 | T43

From CO
Called 81.5%
Steal value: T56
Call value: -T266 | -T166
T value: -T210 | -T111


If given the opportunity:

1. steal from the SB with any two
2. steal from the button with any two
3. steal from CO with T7o


I advocate stealing in all stituations that are better than Tvalue -T200. Thus, stealing from CO is -T111 but I advocate stealing since letting the BB hit you is -T200 and with only 2 hands left in the orbit, you will be giving up all steal value with little in return. Anyone agree with this or have an opinion? Thanks for the imput.