KK 50 nl

Ten handed UB ~$75 behind, tag regular who covers opens for 1.75 from the hijack, folded to me in the BB with KK I raise to 4.75, villain calls. Pot 9.75.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] check check. Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I lead for 4, villain takes a while and miniraises to 8, I call.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I check, villain bets pot, I?...

I think I fold here. From my experience at these levels, mini-raises nearly always indicate strength. He probably took the time to think about how much he could extract out of you, and thought he's be real sneaky and try and mini-raise. I might have even have dumped the hand there. He know's your strong, and I don't see a pot sized bet coming on the river with anything less than then an ace. Busted flush might be possible at higher levels but I don't see someone making that kind of play at the $50 level all too often. My range after seeing the bet on the river is a A-10 through A-K. Pretty standard... no? Dump it and move on.

risk/reward ratio is pretty unfavorable here. Fold.

So is there a consensus that this is a fold?

[PoBoy321]

As played, this is a fold, but you should have lead the flop.

Ok results: I was not the big blind, I was the original opener with 99. When the BB reraises I put him on most probably AA or KK, possibly QQ less likely AK. Because of our stack depth and the narrow range I put him on I call to hit a set.

When he checks the flop I rule out AK because I feel he would lead with that, but lots of people won't lead with AA here so I can't be sure he is weak.

When the ace pairs (very unlikely he he AA) and he bets less than half the pot his action is totally consistent with KK or QQ with KK being more likely because of the preflop reraise, as people reraise out of the blinds
slightly less with QQ than KK.

So I have a decision to make, I can either fold knowing I am behind with very few outs, or I can try to move him off KK/QQ. I decide to move him off the hand, so I try to represent a very strong hand by miniraising the turn (expecting a call) and potting a blank river (I will probably have to give up if another ace comes or a king or maybe a queen).

This action should be consistent with how most people at this level play a very strong hand; I want to avoid stupid bluffs where my action is not consistent with a very strong hand.

The BB runs his time all the way down and finally calls, showing KK. The lesson to be learned (relearned) from this is that you should not bluff people you are not absolutely sure are capable of making the laydown you need them to make.

The BB was basically an unknown at the table, and I should have known better.