KQo. Flop and river play?

#1 11-24-2005, 06:03 PM

Hi. I have recently moved up to 0.5/1 and have been struggling a bit with bad cards/beats. I've still managed to show a slight profit though in ~800 hands and I'm working on my confidence. Here is a hand for your inspection.

The CO in this hand is 20/7 preflop at 45 hands. No notes.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

My thought process on the flop is that he often will have QQ-TT so I want to put more bets into the pot. But this feels like spewing in this hand. Anyone who has a suggestion for a better line? Should I fold this hand on the turn when the blank falls? What is a good line on the river? Thanks in advance.

DCWildcat · #2 11-24-2005, 06:08 PM

Not bad. Obviously there's very little that you can beat after the 3-bet on the flop, given his 7% PFR. What's is post flop aggro? If it's high enough to where he'd 3-bet QQ-TT on this flop, then a river check-raise would be nice. I seriously doubt that Q helped him.

If his stats indicate that he'd only 3-bet it with AA, AK, or KK, I might be more inclined to bet out to make sure at least one bet goes in. With those stats, you'll very rarely be raised on the river. I don't want it getting checked through.

Nick Royale · #3 11-24-2005, 06:29 PM

On this flop it's time to go into WA/WB-mode. It's a line where you are supposed to be way ahead if you're ahead and way behind if you're behind. In this case it's not entirely true since against AA you'll have 5 outs, but it's close to true since he'll never have more than 2 outs if you're ahead. (he can't have a fluchdraw since he would have had to 3-bet KJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] preflop).

So the line you should take is to check/call the flop, check/call the turn and bet the river. You want hands like QQ-TT to keep bet since they're big underdogs and by betting the river you hope the same hands will call (QQ-TT). At the same time AK will most often not dare to raise.

Nick Royale · #4 11-24-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not bad. Obviously there's very little that you can beat after the 3-bet on the flop, given his 7% PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]
This flop raise doesn't do us any good. We'll only fold hands that's not having the odds to draw and risk getting 3-betted by hands having us in really bad shape (KK/AK). Just check/call.

[ QUOTE ]
If his stats indicate that he'd only 3-bet it with AA, AK, or KK, I might be more inclined to bet out to make sure at least one bet goes in. With those stats, you'll very rarely be raised on the river. I don't want it getting checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]
You realise if this is his range we'll be ahead 93% of the time. I LOVE to check/raise here! Both AA and AK will almost never fail with this check/raise.

milesdyson · #5 11-24-2005, 07:32 PM

nick's advice is perfect.

this is a bad flop check raise. the way you played this hand you should have laid it down on the turn. folding top pair may suck, but you are crushed here.

but hey, we got to the river and hit our 3 outer. fwiw if his range is AA/AK/KK -

6 combos of AA - we have 5 outs
8 combos of AK - we have 3 outs
1 combo of KK - we have 0 outs

weight this - we get (6*5 + 8*3 + 0)/15 = 3.6 outs.

42.4/3.6 = 11.8:1. we're getting 7.75:1.

anyway we hit our money card, and he'll very likely bet AK/AA again, so c/r. if we bet he'll likely only raise with KK, so betting is obviously bad.