do I have odds here?

[bigbadshawn]

Paradise Poker 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, [color=#CC3333]MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, [color=#CC3333]BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, [color=#CC3333]MP2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (28 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, [color=#CC3333]MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, [color=#CC3333]MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero ?

16.5 BB


I think I do, this would be a decent call if I can pump it up to about 20 BB on the end? Also too loose to call a cap pre-flop despite all the other callers?

[Duffman]

I lay this down preflop when it's 2 bets back to me, but I might be the only one.

I'm laying this down on the flop. You only have 2 outs. Even if you hit your seven you're vulnerable to a flush by the turn or river.

[sean c]

If your positive your behind and you probably are you should fold the turn. Getting 18.5:1 you would need to make up four+ bets and with only two other players seeing the river i doubt that will happen. Also after the pre flop action there is a chance someone already has a set of kings or jacks so even when you spike your two outer you sometimes still lose.

[VoraciousReader]

Preflop is fine. I think the turn call is OK. You don't quite have the immediate odds, but the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is in your hand, so you won't hit your set only to lose to somebody's flush. Your hand is well disguised if you hit, and you're well positioned vs MP2 to checkraise the field.

Of course, MP2 could have KK, in which case you're drawing dead. But every so often that's just going to be the case.

Edit: Okay, I knew the turn might not be a call...but I'm laying down this flop...well...never. We hold the 7 of hearts and our odds are about a billion to 1!

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm laying this down on the flop. You only have 2 outs. Even if you hit your seven you're vulnerable to a flush by the turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would have to put a gun to my head to get me to fold that flop getting 1:32

If hero hits on turn, there can't be a flush (he holds 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

and hero would roughly have the same amount of outs to fill up as somebody who is drawing to a flush (only hero wins if both are UI)

[bigbadshawn]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is well disguised if you hit, and you're well positioned vs MP2 to checkraise the field.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, say 7 comes on the river, I check-raise, gets three bet. I can't possibly cap it can I?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I lay this down preflop when it's 2 bets back to me, but I might be the only one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, absent reads that these guys are nutball-loose.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm laying this down on the flop. You only have 2 outs. Even if you hit your seven you're vulnerable to a flush by the turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, calling preflop put you in the position of having odds to draw to your set, and if you hit the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you'll have odds to draw to the boat.

On the turn, you have to get away from it. You're not ahead enough to have even a 5% chance of winning UI, and you don't have the odds to draw.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I lay this down preflop when it's 2 bets back to me, but I might be the only one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, absent reads that these guys are nutball-loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
folding preflop is never an option.

[Shillx]

I would fold the turn. It is close and probably doesn't matter much. Folding anywhere before there is just crazy though.

Brad

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I lay this down preflop when it's 2 bets back to me, but I might be the only one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, absent reads that these guys are nutball-loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
folding preflop is never an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

By my count there are 14 bets in the pot when it's 2 to you (7:1, and that won't really improve with bets going in from the players behind you, even if it isn't capped) and you need about 8:1 to call for set value, without discounting that for the times that you're going to hit your set and still have to give it up because there's an A-J on the board and somebody's still going nuts. Because you can't possibly think you're best, even preflop.

And, you're looking at some serious reverse-implied odds if you don't hit on the flop, because you WILL have the odds to call one (you're OOP, and then you'll probably have to call at least one more after that when it gets raised behind you) to try and catch a 7 on the turn, even with paint on the flop. Ugh.

Call me weak, but I fold this preflop when it's 2 back to me.