AA check-raised on dangerous flop

Rooger · #1 09-22-2005, 12:37 PM

Sat down around 10 hands ago. Villain is bigstack of the table - he probably sees me as a bit LAG, as I've raised 3 or 4 of the 10 hands PF, and contination betted the hands.

Is this a fold, given the board & SB's check-raise? Call and see a turn? What is your action if a heart hits? Non-heart? T?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($483.64)
BB ($81.55)
UTG ($162.95)
MP ($58.56)
Hero ($102.80)
Button ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $25, Hero?

Godfather80 · #2 09-22-2005, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sat down around 10 hands ago. Villain is bigstack of the table - he probably sees me as a bit LAG, as I've raised 3 or 4 of the 10 hands PF, and contination betted the hands.

Is this a fold, given the board & SB's check-raise? Call and see a turn? What is your action if a heart hits? Non-heart? T?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($483.64)
BB ($81.55)
UTG ($162.95)
MP ($58.56)
Hero ($102.80)
Button ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $25, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

SB's hand range is limited by the fact that you hold 2 of the aces. To me this makes it likely that he has a medium pocket pair or suited connector. If you call, you've gotta call $17 to win $42 so you are getting better than 2.5:1. SB's check-raise is a good bet because it could represent many hands.

KK is unlikely because he probably would have reraised preflop.
QQ is unlikely for the same reason as KK.
JJ is a distinct possibility.
TT is a distinct possibility.
99 is a distinct possibility.
QJs is a distinct possibility.
JhTh is a distinct possibility.
T9 is a distinct possibility.
89s is unlikely unless he is very aggro.
7h8h is a distinct possibility.

Barring a good read, I probably fold here.

wdeadwyler · #3 09-22-2005, 12:54 PM

I lost a stack w/ AA on a similar flop (albeit rainbow) yesterday. Dont make my same mistake. FOLD.

#4 09-22-2005, 09:21 PM

I'd probably fold...just cut your loss right there, way too many draws/or possible drawing dead to 2 aces..

DoomSlice · #5 09-22-2005, 09:23 PM

Even if you are ahead, he probably has a good chance to suck out, and it's hard to tell which ones are safe and which aren't. Fold!

TexArcher · #6 09-22-2005, 09:58 PM

Cut losses, IF you're ahead at all, he probably has enough outs to mean that your call costs too much to be +EV, and he might already have you dominated.

Rooger · #7 09-23-2005, 08:24 AM

I agree that I should've folded - I put villain on a draw, as my guess is he would've bet on the flop if he had a made hand (set, 2 pairs etc). I used all my time, and ended up calling.

Turn: ($59) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $75, Hero?

Now villain overbets the pot, putting me all-in? Is there any way I can call this? Is it a bluff? The turn wasn't a scare card, so the overbet confused me very much.

fuzzbox · #8 09-23-2005, 08:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that I should've folded - I put villain on a draw, as my guess is he would've bet on the flop if he had a made hand (set, 2 pairs etc). I used all my time, and ended up calling.

Turn: ($59) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $75, Hero?

Now villain overbets the pot, putting me all-in? Is there any way I can call this? Is it a bluff? The turn wasn't a scare card, so the overbet confused me very much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you put him on a draw, this turn changes nothing, so you call.

DoomSlice · #9 09-23-2005, 11:55 AM

Yes, you call this since you took so long to call the flop, of course he will bet.

#10 09-23-2005, 12:24 PM

fold or reraise all in on a good read of your opponnent.
in fact i think your vilan as a set ! or semi-bluffing a very nice draw take care !