1st Post - Need Range

Final Table... 72 person tournament down to final seven, five paid. Payout : 1st - $1,500 2nd - $750 3rd - $550 4th $150 5th - $75 ........ Buy - in was $50. Larger than normal % entry fee.
Blinds were 5K and 10K and are now at 10K and 20K. 3 stacks of about 180K and 6 short stacks. Hero has 45K... 720K total chips in play.


Previous hands were:
Hand #3
Player 3 seats to Hero's right has 20K Posts BB and is all in . Does not improve Eliminated in 9th spot.
Hand #4
Player 2 seats to Hero's right has 20K posts BB and is all in. Does not improve Eliminated in 8th spot.
Hand #5
Player to right of hero also has only 20K posts BB and is all in, no SB. Hero is UTG with 45K stack, folds trash, folded around to big stack on button, who folds.

Hand #6
Hero is in BB. Folded round to SB (10K stack) and he folds.

Table now had 3 large stacks (about 180K - 200K) and 4 smaller stacks.
Hero with 55K
PLayer to immediate left with 55K,
Player to immediate right with 10K
Short stack at the other end of the table who may or may not get blinded off in the next orbit. 30K-60K

Hand #7
Folded around to hero in SB. BB is loose, willing to gamble, and has exact same stack as HERO. Hero looks down and sees 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero folds face up.

Hand #8
Folded to hero on button who looks down and sees T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
one of 3 big stacks is in the BB. No read on him, hasn't shown down at FT.
Hero's thinking:

1. Blinds are very high even relative to the big stacks, making FT a bit of a crapshoot as to who wins the tournament.
2. Hero could probably fold into the $$$ but plays to win.
3. Little or no Fold Equity, but no one is in the pot, is this a clear push?
4. Blinds might be up to 20K and 40K by the time they get back around to Hero.

What range are you pushing with here?


Responses appreciated
Carl

[schwza]

i would not show the 24s when you fold. i'd fold and say something like "can't take a chance with K8 here."

KTs is a turbo push. i'd push hands as weak as K7s, 44, A2o.

Any pair, any Ace, and definitely K10d. Prob pushing any K as well as any two broadway cards.

[locutus2002]

In the circumstances you've described, I'd push any Q and jacks down to j7.

If SB is tight I'd push any J and Tens down to T7.

I wouldn't have hesitated to push 24s, given the flat payout structure (you are unlikely to fold into 4th). You are 36% in the hand and have some FE. It is what it is. BB needs to be 40% in the hand to call. Maybe he didn't get some cards. You are going to need some luck anyhow.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If SB is tight I'd push any J and Tens down to T7.

[/ QUOTE ]

i haven't done the math, but i think that even if you assume SB folds everything (very optimistic) and BB calls everything (totally expected) pushing with J2o is not +cEV (and therefore not +$EV.)

[Yuv]

Push. And don't spend 50$ on turbo MTT's. It's fine if you play a gigantic field with a small buy in (cause it's alot of fun), but for 50$ it's too much. Unless 50$ means nothing to you, and in that case, i can't think on one reason not to push KTs.

[locutus2002]

Well J2 is the worst jack, 44%.
J5o is about 48% in the hand (against 1 player). Hero only has to be 47% in the hand to make the play CEV+.

I'd still make this play with J2, even though its slightly CEV-, because chips won are worth alot more than chips lost. This is substantially true because if hero wins, 6XBB will give him FE.

The hand will have high variance, which is another reason to take a CEV- proposition if you believe chips won are worth substantially more than chips lost.

I think a tight SB calls 10% of the time with hands that include k9o or so.

It's clearly CEV-, but has high variance, and 6XBB is worth alot here.

I feel the same way about 24s.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd still make this play with J2, even though its slightly CEV-,

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a lot more than "slightly." the SB is calling with a pretty wide range, so you're essentially playing against the best of 2 hands, or even worse, both hands (and the BB is barely putting in any more money).

[locutus2002]

read my original post, if SB is loose I'd push Q and J down to j7.

It's only slightly CEV- if at all, and is worth the high variance outcome that hero will get given:

the flat payout structure through 5th.
No FE with no chips.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
read my original post, if SB is loose I'd push Q and J down to j7.

It's only slightly CEV- if at all, and is worth the high variance outcome that hero will get given:

the flat payout structure through 5th.
No FE with no chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

we're pushing for 2.25x bb. SB does not need to be loose to call with a pretty wide range. it'd be nice to know SB's stack size, btw.

i'm also skeptical that this is a time we welcome a gamble. we might get itm without playing a hand. admittedly, 5th pays surprisingly low compared to 1st, but itm is always nice. J7 is barely +cEV assuming SB folds AA, so i think it is very -cEV with him calling good hands.