Quick Question on Reads

GTSamIAm · #1 08-12-2005, 01:03 AM

Say I have JJ. The flop is undercards, I bet, a fish calls. The turn brings a K, I bet, the fish raises. I'm getting 4:1 to call down. How accurate would my read that he has a king have to be for me to be able to fold? I'm guessing better than 80% of the time I have to be right. Is that correct?

GrunchCan · #2 08-12-2005, 01:05 AM

Are you getting 4:1 expressed or effective? This is an important distinction when deciding if you should showdown or muck.

econ_tim · #3 08-12-2005, 01:06 AM

You don't have to have a great read.

Rember you will probably have to call another bet on the river, so your full odds are 5:2. Plus he could also have a flopped two pair or a set.

GTSamIAm · #4 08-12-2005, 01:18 AM

Effective.

GrunchCan · #5 08-12-2005, 01:23 AM

Then you need to win the hand once for every 4 times you lose in order to break even.

Don't forget that you may have redraws.

GTSamIAm · #6 08-12-2005, 01:29 AM

Here's the hand. Villain is Moby Dick. I guess the turn is a standard fold, then. I don't have many redraws here. So you say I have to win once to the four times I lose to break even? So my read that he has top pair needs to be over 80% accurate to make the correct fold? Tell me I'm right.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 5 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

deepsquat · #7 08-12-2005, 01:30 AM

if a passive player raise a turn King when you have shown strength pf you will be looking at a K or Kx 2 pair a very high % of the time. You can safely fold this hand and move on imo.

Fishboy will turn over K10 here