Dan Harrington continuation bet question.

[sunek]

Hi

Dan Harrington writes in HOH 2 that if you make a a half pot sized continuation bet you will break even if you win just pot one out of three. How I believe that following example shows that this is not the case. If I have made some miscalculations or misunderstood what Harrington says please correct me.

Scenario:

Heads up each player has a stack of 1000 and blinds are 15/30

Hand 1:

You are SB
You call opponent checks so the pot is 60
BB checks you bet 30 and win the pot

Your stack: 1030 opponent stack: 970

Hand 2: You are BB
He calls and you check so the pot is again 60
You bet 30 he raises and you fold

Your stack: 970 opponent stack 1030

Hand 3: You are SB
You call he checks and the pot is 60 for the third time
He checks you bet 30 he raises and you fold.

Your stack: 910 opponent stack 1090.


Best Regards

sunek

You need to reread the book. A continuation bet comes after the flop when you raised preflop.

[sunek]

Sorry I have now revised the example so the post flop bets are now continuation bets. However my point is the same; if you bet half the pot post flop and win one out of three you are not break even.

Scenario:

Heads up each player has a stack of 1000 and blinds are 15/30

Hand 1:

You are SB
You bet 30 opponent calls so the pot is 120
BB checks you bet 60 and win the pot

Your stack: 1060 opponent stack: 940

Hand 2: You are BB
He calls, you bet 30 and he checks so the pot is again 120
You bet 60 he raises and you fold

Your stack: 940 opponent stack 1060

Hand 3: You are SB
You bet 30 he calls and the pot is 120 for the third time
He checks you bet 60 he raises and you fold.

Your stack: 880 opponent stack 1120.


Best Regards

sunek

[stigmata]

I think your missing the point.

Imagine this situation: You raise preflop with a good hand. You miss the flop, but everybody else probably missed the flop too. You need to have a stab at taking the pot uncontested. A half pot size bet needs to win 1/3 to break even.

The action before the flop does not matter -- the money is already in the pot. Also, if you flopped a good hand, it would not be a "continuation bet", you would be betting for other reasons (e.g. value, protection etc.). Therefore we are dealing *specifically* with postflop attempts to take the pot uncontested, by continuing your preflop aggression.

So, lets say the pot is now $100. The earlier action is unimportant, except for the fact that you have been representing a strong hand and you think you can win uncontested with a bet on the flop. How big should this bet be?

If we make a $50 bet, this only needs to win 1/3 of the time to break even:

1/3 of the time we win the pot of $100 = (1/3) x $100 = $33
2/3 of the time we lose our $50 bet = $33

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
1/3 of the time we win the pot of $100 = (1/3) x $100 = $33
2/3 of the time we lose our $50 bet = $33

[/ QUOTE ]

My fuzzy math skills may be off, but don't you mean...

1/3 of the time we win the pot of $100 = 1 x 100 = +$100
2/3 of the time we lose our $50 bet = 2 x 50 = -$100

[stigmata]

I was trying to do it EV style. Another way of saying it:

Your EV of a half pot bet that has 1/3 chance of winning is:

(1/3)*(X) + (2/3)*(-0.5*X) = 0

Where X is size of pot.

[Shandrax]

A continuation bet is a semi-bluff after you have missed the flop. You give your opponent a chance to fold and you may get a potential free card when you check the turn.

You may not break even after 3 bets, but you should break even in the long run. In poker you make favorable bets and if you lose the pot your favor is gone with it. Still if you make enough of these favorable bets, you should show profit over time.

[pzhon]

In your examples, you are not losing money on the continuation bets. You are losing money between the continuation bets.

Suppose you put in a total of $900 preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. You have $100 left, and are getting 19:1 on a call on the river. You only have to be ahead 1 time for every 19 that you are behind to break even on the river call, but you have lost money on average on the whole hand. If you are ahead 1 time in 20, both calling and folding will leave you with $100 on average, $900 less than you had at the start of the hand. Breaking even on the call doesn't mean you expect to get back the money you spent on the hand earlier.

Continuation bets are more complicated than calls on the river. Sometimes you get called by worse hands; someone may call with Ax-high against your AQ-high, for example. You aren't dead if you get called by a better hand, either, as you often have outs. On the other hand, the alternative to making a continuation bet is better than open-folding.

[intheflatfield]

I like the continuation bet concept, but it seems like this is lately being ridiculed in SS as being predictable and that good players p/u on it, and play back over the top.

I guess I'm conflicted because on one hand playing as a TAG is sometimes predictable, especially against better players, but what is the alternative? To play fishy just to be unpredictable? To give up on a flop after your raise PF and miss? You obviously can't auto mini-bet or pot it every time regardless of the flop. I can understand both sentiments, but sometimes I think we can hurt ourselves by overthinking or giving the average opponent too much credit.

I know the above is uber-general and overly simplistic, but the confilcting advice makes my brain hurt...

The reason continuation bets work alot of the time is that you must make it look like a bet you would make if you hit. If you always bet 1/2 pot on a continuation and 1x the pot if you hit it won't work. If you vary your bet size they won't know if you hit or are on a continuation. If a good player comes over the top of me sometimes I am going to have hit and he will be in trouble and when I don't I just lay it down. That is unless I think I can get him to lay it down with a reraise. You have to know your opponent to risk doing it but when it works it is sweet. Always lay your hand down when an average or a poor player comes over the top of you on a continuation bet.