Pot odds or suckout?

Guthrie · #1 10-02-2005, 02:19 AM

I normally don't pay much attention to what people say about me in chat, but two or three players seemed to think this was a typical suckout by a fish.

Actually I had checked the flop fully intending to fold since this was a hand I really didn't want to play. A flush would probably not be the nuts, I had the ignorant end of the gutshot, and a pair of queens would be useless when some donk paired his ace. But I counted my outs, came up with 3 queens, 4 fives, and 1.5 for the backdoor flush draw. Maybe overly generous at 8.5, but I only needed 5 for the pot odds, so I reluctantly called.

On the turn I now have a flush draw, and one of the cards that beats me is on the board, plus the gutshot, 13 outs, so an easy call. Actually, looking back on it, I should probably have raised.

So was this a typical suckout by a fish or my just reward for reading all those books?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

benkath1 · #2 10-02-2005, 02:27 AM

I might discount your gutshot outs on the flop, but overall I think this is a nice hand. As long as you are prepared to drop it on the turn UI.

istewart · #3 10-02-2005, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But I counted my outs, came up with 3 queens, 4 fives, and 1.5 for the backdoor flush draw. Maybe overly generous at 8.5, but I only needed 5 for the pot odds, so I reluctantly called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah definitely fold the flop. Counting queens as full outs is no good, they're probably around ~1 on this board and with your kicker. If you hit a 5 you have the low end of a one-card OESD which will result in a split or a loss all too often to keep me interested.

pryor15 · #4 10-02-2005, 03:52 AM

i might have gone for the c/r on the river, other than that it looks ok, although you may be overestimating your outs. if so, the flop may become a fold, but you know that already.

Eeegah · #5 10-02-2005, 04:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn I now have a flush draw, and one of the cards that beats me is on the board, plus the gutshot, 13 outs, so an easy call. Actually, looking back on it, I should probably have raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not too sure here. The A is a scare card; betting out definitely sucks as it'll just serve to drive folks out and cut your value, especially if MP1 raises. Similarly a checkraise will drive out UTG+1, and with the button already out it's not at all for value (you've traded your Q outs for deuces, but your...9+3+3=15 only bail you out about a third of the time).

Apart from that, I think it's fine. The flop may be slightly loose since it's the butt end of the straight, but someone would need to be holding an 8 to beat you which is a little less common.

tyler_cracker · #6 10-02-2005, 04:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn I now have a flush draw, and one of the cards that beats me is on the board, plus the gutshot, 13 outs, so an easy call. Actually, looking back on it, I should probably have raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way you can count your once-card dummy-end gutshot outs as a full 4. Maybe like 1.5.

And even with 13 outs, a turn raise is bad. It's likely to get you heads up against the aggressor while you hold Q-high. Just call.

SoftcoreRevolt · #7 10-02-2005, 04:46 AM

If you were closing the action on the flop, I'd call because with all those weak draws we may just barely have enough after UTG+1 calls.

It is a weird situation though, since the more callers, the bigger the pot, and the better the odds. The less callers, the less chance someone has an 8, and the more value we can give to your Crap Shot.

And it's tough to factor in implied odds, since are you going to be raising here with the ass end of a straight?

But yeah, it isn't a suckout. It's just really ugly to look at.

Vote4Pedro · #8 10-02-2005, 04:52 AM

I think you can fold on the flop, but otherwise, you played like a true champion.....boooooyaaaah

Guthrie · #9 10-02-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But yeah, it isn't a suckout. It's just really ugly to look at.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this best sums it up.