Yet another "should I have pushed?"

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB (t680)
BB (t3850)
UTG (t2320)
Hero (t1150)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero pushes all-in

Blinds were 150-300. BB was kind of a loose player, but I hadn't seen him make any bad all-in calls. I always find myself in these sticky situations with a shortstack and myself having a stack that will last a couple orbits but will be crippled if I don't make a move soon. I just hate leaving it to the short stack to bust themselves out, especially when they can survive more than one orbit, like this guy could. I felt one successful blind steal would better ensure my survival over the short stack. So, is this move + or - EV?

[bmxreed36]

I think it is pretty close and really dependant on what either of the blinds calling standards are. If you think either one is calling with alot of hands than fold. If they're both tight, then I usually push and think of it as an insurance push in case the short stack doubles up or something in the next orbit.

It depends on the BB. If he calls with A2, QJ and hands like that, it's no longer +EV to push. (I checked with SnG Powertools.) If he's a little tighter, and doesn't make stupid calls like you said, it's +EV.

[tigerite]

It'll be 850 for him to call to win 1150 + 300 + 150 = 1600. He probably will call a large range here, maybe even correctly. I think this is a marginal fold.

[lorinda]

How has the SB been playing?

Lori

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
How has the SB been playing?

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

This is important as well.

Without a read, Im folding this. This is given the shortstacks size, and the strength of your hand mostly.

[flyingmoose]

If the SB is even moderately tight, you'll probably have to pay the blinds again before he goes in. If he wins his all-in, you're in trouble, and even if he loses, you need a lot of luck fast to get in contention for anything but third. For that reason, I actually prefer a push here, even though SNGPT is telling me to fold.

The SB was fishy to start, but tightened up considerably when it got 5 and 4 handed. It looked to me as if he was going to keep folding and try to limp into the money. BB was tough to read... one hand in the early goings he reraised 160 on top of a 40 chip raise preflop with ATs (flopped the flush to double up against SB's KK, whom just flat cold-called both reraises preflop). Then, a few hands later, he limped in with JJ and checked down on a board of rags only to put a small bet on the river. My only other read was that he overbot the pot on the river once as a bluff.